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The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks. We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the ACC.
To reiterate from our previous posts, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft. We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft. As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive. That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.
Winners: With 11 picks in the draft, the Seminoles did a good job of converting top talent (they averaged a top ten ranked recruiting class over the relevant period for the 2013 draft). The Tar Heels were the surprising winners of this draft. North Carolina had 5 picks in the draft, and did not average a top 20 recruiting class over the corresponding time period! Thus Carolina was very successful at converting high school talent into picks.
Middle of the Pack: Clemson could almost be placed in the “winner” column. However, they had fewer draft picks than North Carolina, but on average better rated recruiting classes. Duke, Wake Forest, and Virginia only had one pick each, but they also had the lowest rated incoming talent in the ACC.
Losers: Miami attracted a lot of talent, but only produced 2 draft picks. The Terrapins had far superior talent recruited to College Park than Duke, Wake Forest, or Virginia, but they produced the same number of draft picks, one. Boston College and Georgia Tech both had no picks despite averaging top 50 classes over the relevant time period.
By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013
Methodology for the study explained here.