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The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks. We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the SEC.
To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft. We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft. As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive. For example, our previous result of Kentucky having a very high conversion rate only considered elite recruits, and was for a six year period of drafts before the 2013 NFL Draft. This study is for all rated recruit conversion, and is just for this one draft.
Winners: While Georgia and LSU had 8 and 9 draft picks respectively, they also averaged top 10 recruiting classes over the relevant time period. South Carolina had 7 picks with talent that on average was just inside the top 20! Vanderbilt by FAR had the worst rated incoming talent during this period, but they still doubled up Auburn in terms of their number of draft picks!
Middle of the Pack: It may surprise many to see Alabama and Florida listed in the “Middle of the Pack”. After all, these schools produced 17 picks between the two of them. Remember, we are measuring the ability of schools to convert their incoming talent into draft picks. These schools had amazing recruiting classes every year. Given such a high level of talent, we would have expected at least one or two more picks per school to put them in the “Winners” category.
Losers: Auburn and Ole Miss are the two biggest SEC losers this year in the draft. Auburn averaged a top 15 recruiting class, but only produced one pick. Ole Miss averaged a top 25 class, and had no picks at all.
By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013
Methodology for the study explained here.