During the NFL season, columnists & “insiders” provide their speculation on coaches that are on the proverbial “hot seat”. It seems like coaches can be on the “hot seat” before the season even starts, and they can jump on and off the seat on a weekly basis. We assume that the columnists & “insiders” are basing their speculation on institutional knowledge. While Emory Sports Marketing Analytics does not have access to NFL team management, we do have the ability to gauge fan/customer opinion through Twitter. We would like to present the NFL Coaching Hot Seat from the fan perspective.
The methodology for creating our “hot seat” is straightforward. Using Topsy Pro, we collected all tweets from the last thirty days that mention a head coach. Each tweet was then characterized as having positive, negative, or neutral sentiment based on its content. We computed the ratio of negative to positive tweets for each coach (e.g. If the ratio is 2, the coach has twice as many negative tweets as positive). We believe that this ratio can serve as a proxy for public sentiment towards a coach.
A quick scan of today’s sports news shows that most columnists & “insiders” believe that Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay) and Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) are receiving the most heat from their coaching seats. Our analysis of public sentiment over the last thirty days shows that Joe Philbin (Miami) has the highest negative to positive tweet ratio (2.47). At a distant second is Mike Shanahan (Washington), and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) is in third. Thus, it seems that if the public were making coaching decisions, Philbin and Shanahan would be on the hottest seats! We realize that much of the negative tweeting about Coach Philbin is probably connected to the Martin-Incognito incident, but ultimately this does reflect on Philbin’s job status.
It is interesting to note that in terms of sheer quantity of tweets (number of mentions), Rex Ryan is the leader in the NFL over the last thirty days. Schiano and Philbin are second and third, respectively.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory 2013