WNBA Social Media Equity Rankings

We begin our summer of fan base rankings with a project done by one of our favorite Emory students – Ilene Tsao.  Ilene presents a multi-dimensional analysis of the WNBA across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.  The first set of rankings speak to the current state of affairs.  Seattle leads the way followed by LA and Atlanta.  In the second analysis, Ilene takes a look at what is possible in each market (by controlling for time in market and championships).  In this analysis the Atlanta Dream lead the way followed by Minnesota and Chicago.

The teams in the WNBA are constantly looking for ways to improve their brand and continue to expand their fan base. Social media provides a way to measure fan loyalty and support. In order to calculate WNBA teams’ social media equity, we collected data on each team’s followers across the three main social media platforms of Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. We then ran a regression model to help predict followers for each platform as a function of factors such as metropolitan populations, number of professional teams, team winning percentages, and playoff achievements. After creating this model, we used the predicted number of followers and compared it to each team’s actual number of social media followers.  Our goal is to see who “over” or “under” achieves based on social media followers on average. We then ranked the WNBA teams based on the results.

The first model only used the metropolitan population and winning percentage of each team. After taking the average of the Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram rankings, we found the Seattle Storm had the best performance. The Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics consistently ranked as the bottom two teams across all three platforms, but teams like the Los Angeles Sparks and Atlanta Dream had more variation. The Dream ranked 6th for Twitter, but 1st for Instagram while the Sparks ranked 1st for Twitter and 6th for Instagram. This could be because both Instagram and the Dream recently joined the social media world and the WNBA, while the Sparks and Twitter have been around for longer. Based on raw numbers, the New York Liberty has high performance in terms of social media followers, but when we adjust for market size and winning percentage, the team does poorly.

Rankings for Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram based on the metropolitan population and the teams’ winning percentages:

WNBA Social Media 1

The second model extended the previous analysis by incorporating the number of other professional teams in the area and number of WNBA championships won into the regression analysis. This model seemed to be a better fit for our data and resulted in small adjustments in the rankings. After taking the average of all three rankings with the new factors, the Atlanta Dream was ranked first while passing the Seattle Storm and Los Angeles Sparks. The Mystics were no longer consistently the worst team, but were still in the bottom half of the rankings.

Rankings based on metropolitan population, winning percentage, number of other professional teams, and number of WNBA championships:

WNBA Social Media 2Ilene Tsao, Emory University, 2015.

2015 NFL Draft Efficiency: A Good Sign of Things to Come for Gator fans?

The first three rounds of the 2015 NFL Draft concluded last night. While there was no Twitter-breaking Manziel event like last year, the event was once again a marketing success for the NFL.

For the past two years, we have examined the NFL draft from a unique perspective.  We analyze the process of taking high school talent and converting it into NFL draft picks.  In other words, we want to understand how efficient are colleges at transforming their available high school human capital into NFL draft picks?

Our approach is fairly simple. Each year, every FBS football program has an incoming class. The players in the class have been evaluated by several national recruiting/ranking companies (e.g. Rivals, Scout, etc.). In theory, these evaluations provide a measure of the player’s talent or quality. Each year, we also observe which players get drafted by the NFL. Thus, we can measure conversion rates over time for each college. Conversion rates may be indicative of the school’s ability to coach-up talent, to identify talent, or to invest in players. These rates may also depend on the talent composition of all of the players on the team. This last factor is particularly important from a recruiting standpoint. Should players flock to places that other highly ranked players have selected?

 How did you compute the conversion rate?

The conversion rate for each school is defined as (Sum of draft picks for the first three rounds of 2015 Draft)/(Weighted Recruiting Talent). Weighted Recruiting Talent is determined by summing the recruiting “points” for the relevant eligible class for the 2015 NFL Draft for each program (this can include eligible juniors as well as fifth year seniors). These “points” are computed by weighting each recruit by the overall population average probability of being drafted in the first three rounds for recruits at that corresponding talent level over the last three years. For example, a five-star recruit is much more likely to get drafted than a four or three-star recruit. We are using ratings data from Rivals.com.

2015 nfl draftThe table above shows the results of our analysis of the first three rounds of the draft.  Colorado State had two draft picks in the first three rounds that were both 3-stars or below coming out of high school.  It will intersting to see how Jim McElwain will be able to shape the higher level of talent he will most likely attract at the University of Florida.  Please note that we did not include schools that only had one player drafted in the first three rounds, as that could be considered an aberration. Of course, a similar argument could be made that one draft is too small of a sample to rate the efficiency of a college. Thus, the table below represents results from the last 4 years of drafts (2012-2015).

2012-2015 NFL DraftThe school that really stands out over the last four years with respect to the development of talent is Stanford University.  While Connecticut and Boise State may be rated higher, Stanford has produced more than double the number of draft picks of the other two schools.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University, 2015.