NFL Fan Base and Brand Rankings 2017

NFL Fandom Report 2017: The “Best” NFL Fans

Who has the best fans in the NFL?  What are the best brands in the NFL? These are simple questions without simple answers.  First we have to decide what we mean by “best”.  What makes for a great fan or brand?  Fans that show up even when the team is losing?  Fans that are willing to pay the highest prices?  Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?

Even after we agree on the question, answering it is also a challenge.  How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium?  Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries?  How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Green Bay?

My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here).  The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term changes in winning and losing.

In past years, two measures of engagement have been featured: Fan Equity and Social Media Equity.  Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet) and Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s community (support exhibited by joining social media communities).  This year I am adding a third measure Road Equity.  Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance.   These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.

To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest possible method.  We are just going to average the across the three metrics.  (similar analyses are available for the NBA and MLB).

The Winners

The top five fan bases (team brands if you prefer) are the Cowboys, Patriots, Eagles, Giants and Steelers.  The Cowboys excel on all the metrics.  They win in terms of Fan Equity (a revenue premium measure of brand strength), Road Equity and finish second in social media.  The underlying data (I will spare everybody the statistical models) reveals why Dallas does so well.  The Cowboy’s average home attendance (reported by ESPN) is more than 10,000 higher than the next team.  The Cowboys average ticket price is also well above average and they have the second most Twitter followers after the Patriots.  The other thing to note is that the Cowboys achieve these year in and year out , even in years when the team is not great.  

There are likely some objections to the list.  Patriot fans are bandwagon fans!  The Steelers are too low!  The Eagles above the Packers or Bears?!   Way too much to get into in a short blog post but a couple of comments.

First, Patriot fans may be bandwagon fans.  But at this point it is tough to tell.  The team has been excellent and the fans have been supportive for a long time.  And even when things tend to go wrong for the Patriots they come out ahead.  I believe that the deflate gate controversy had a significant positive impact on the Patriots’ social media following.

The Steelers are low in Fan Equity and higher on the other metrics.  We can trace this to the Steelers pricing.  The Steelers seem to price on the low side of what is possible.

The Eagle do surprise me.  They do get a bump from playing in the NFC East interms of the Road Equity metric.  The NFC East is a strong collection of brands that benefit each other.  It is not easy to disentangle these effects.  And perhaps we shouldn’t since we can make a case that the rivalries that benefit these teams are because of the interest in the individual brands.

The Losers

At the other extreme we have the Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, Rams and Chiefs.  Some of these are no surprises.  At the top of the list we have the NFL’s royalty.  No one has ever placed the Bengals, Jaguars or titans in that category.

The teams at the bottom of the rankings all suffer from relatively low attendance, have below average pricing power and have limited social followings.  The Rams are a special case.  While not a great brand in past years, the move to LA tends to punish the Rams because their results have not kept pace with the higher income and population levels in LA.

The Chiefs are the tough one on this list.  The Chiefs fill their stadium but at relatively low price.  Keep in mind that the analysis includes factors such as population and median income.  In addition, Kansas City was ranked 29th in terms of Road Attendance last year and the social media following (Twitter) is middle of the road.  The fundamental issue is that that the Chiefs produce these below average fan-based results while performing well above average on the field.

The Complete List

The complete list follows.  In addition to the overall ranking of fan bases, I also report rankings on the social and road measures.  Following the table, I provide a bit more detail regarding each of the metrics.

Three metrics are used to get a complete picture of fans.  But there are other ways to look at fan behavior and brand strength.  For example, we could look at pricing power (which teams are able to extract significant price premiums) or bandwagon fan behavior (which fans are most sensitive to winning).  I’m happy to provide these additional rankings if there is interest.

Fan Equity

Winners: Cowboys, Patriots and 49ers

Losers: Rams, Raiders, Jags

Fan Equity looks at home revenues relative to expected revenue based on team performance and market characteristics.  The goal of the metric is to measure over or under performance relative to other teams in the league.  In other words, statistical models are used to create an apples-to-apples type comparison to avoid distortions due to long-term differences in market size or short-term differences in winning rates.

The 49ers are the interesting winner on this metric.  After the last couple of years, it is doubtful that people are thinking about the 49ers having a rabid fan base.  However, the 49ers are a great example of how the approach works.  On the field the 49ers have been terrible.  But despite the on-field struggles the 49ers still pack in the fans and charge high prices.  This is evidence of a very strong brand because even while losing the 49ers fans still attend and spend.  In terms of the overall rankings the 49ers don’t do all that great because the team does not perform as well as a road or social media draw.

In terms of business concepts, this “Fan Equity” measure is similar to a “revenue premium” measure of brand equity.  It captures the differentials in fan’s willingness to financially support teams of similar quality.  From a business or marketing perspective this is a gold standard of metrics as it directly relates to how a strong brand translates to revenues and profits.

One important thing to note is that some teams may not be trying to maximize revenues.  Perhaps the team is trying to build a fan base by keeping prices low.  Or a team my price on the low side based on some notion of loyalty to its community.   In these cases the Fan equity metric may understate the engagement of fans.

Social Media Equity

Winners: Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos

Losers: Chiefs, Rams and Cardinals

Social Media Equity is also an example of a “premium” based measure of brand equity.  It differs from the Fan Equity in that it focuses on how many fans a team has online rather than fans’ willingness to pay higher prices.  Similar to Fan Equity, Social Media Equity is also constructed using statistical models that control for performance and market differences.

In terms of business application, the social media metric has several implications both on its own merits and in conjunction with the Fan Equity measure.  For example, the lack of local constraints, means that the Social Equity measure is more of a national level measure.  so while the Fan Equity metric focuses on local box office revenues, the social metric provides insight into how a team’s fandom extends beyond a metro area.

Social Media Equity may also serve as a leading indicator of a team’s future fortunes.  For a team to grow revenues it is often necessary to implement controversial price increases.  Convincing fans to sign expensive contracts to buy season tickets can also be a challenge.  Increasing prices and acquiring season ticket holders can therefore take time, while social media communities can grow quickly.  Some preliminary analysis suggests that vibrant social communities are positively correlated with future revenue growth.

A comparison of Fan Equity and Social Media can also be useful.  If Social Media equity exceeds Fan Equity it is evidence that the team has some marketing potential that is not being exploited.  For example, one issue that is common in sports is that it is difficult to estimate the price elasticity of demand because demand is often highest for the best teams and best seats.  The unconstrained nature of social media can provide an important data point for assessing whether a team has additional pricing flexibility.

Road Equity

Winners: Cowboys, Eagles and Raiders

Losers: Texans, Titans and Seahawks

Another way to look at fan quality is to look at how a team draws on the Road.  In the NBA these effects are pronounced.  Lebron or a retiring Kobe coming to town can often lead to sell outs.  At the college level some teams are known to travel very well.  A fan base that travels is almost by definition incredible passionate.

This one has a bit of a muddled interpretation.  If a team has great road attendance is it because the fans are following the team or because they have a national following?  In other words, do the local fans travel or does a team with high road attendance have a national following.  When the Steelers turned the Georgia Dome Yellow and Black was it because Steelers fans came down from Pittsburg or because the Steelers have fans everywhere.

Furthermore, if it is a national following is it because the team is popular across the country or because a lot of folks have moved from places like Pittsburgh or Buffalo to the Sun Belt.  A national following is a great characteristic that might suggest that a team’s brand is on an upswing.  Or it might be that the city itself is on a downward trajectory.

 

 

NBA Fan Rankings: 2016 Edition

On an (almost) annual basis I present rankings of fan bases across major professional and collegiate leagues.  Today it is time for the NBA.   First, the winners and losers in this year’s rankings.  At the top of the list we have the Knicks, Lakers and Bulls. This may be the trifecta of who the league would love to have playing at Christmas and in the Finals.  At the bottom we have the Grizzlies, Nets and Hornets.

nba2016

Before i get into the details it may be helpful to briefly mention what differentiates these rankings from other analyses of teams and fans. My rankings are driven by statistical models of how teams perform on a variety of marketing metrics.  The key insight is that these models allow us to control for short-run variation in team performance and permanent differences in market potential.  In other words – the analysis uses data to identify engagement or passion (based on attend and spend) beyond what is expected based on how a team is performing and where the team is located.   More details on the methodology can be found here.

spike-lee-knicks

The Winners

This year’s list contains no real surprises.  The top five teams are all major market teams with storied traditions.  The top fan base belongs to the Knicks.   The Lakers, Bulls, Heat and Celtics follow.  The Knicks  highlight how the model works.  While the Knicks might not be winning , Knicks fans still attend and spend.

The number two team on the list (The Lakers) is in much the same situation. A dominant brand with a struggling on-court product.   The Lakers and Clippers are an interesting comparison.  Last season, the Clippers did just a bit better in terms of attendance (100.7% versus 99.7%).  But the Lakers filled their seats with an average ticket price that was substantially higher.  The power of the Laker brand is shown in this comparison because these outcomes occurred in a season where the Clippers won many more games.

Why are the Lakers still the bigger draw?  Is this a star (Kobe) effect?  Probably in part, but fan loyalty is something that evolves over time.  The Lakers have the championships, tradition and therefore the brand loyalty.  It will be interesting to see how much equity is retained long-term if the team is unable to quickly reload.  The shared market makes this an interesting story to watch. I suspect that the Lakers will continue to be the stronger brand for quite a while.

The Losers

At the bottom of the list we have Memphis, Brooklyn and Charlotte.  The interesting one in this group is Brooklyn.  Why do the Nets rank poorly?  It ends up being driven by the relative success of the Knicks versus the Nets.  The Knicks have much more pricing power while the teams operate in basically the same market (we can debate this point).  According to ESPN, the Knicks drew 19,812 fans (100% of capacity) while the Nets filled 83.6% of their building.  The Knicks also command much higher ticket prices.  And while the Nets were worse (21 victories) the Knicks were far from special (32 wins).

What can the teams at the bottom of the list do?  When you go into the data and analyze what drives brand equity the results are intuitive.   Championships, deep playoff runs and consistent playoff appearances are the key to building equity.  easy to understand but tough to accomplish.

And a Draw

An interesting aside in all this is what it means for the league.  The NBA has long been a star and franchise driven league.  In the 1980s it was about the Lakers (Magic) and Celtics (Bird).  In the 1990s it was Michael Jordan and the Bulls.  From there we shifted into Kobe and Lebron.

On one hand, the league might be (even) stronger if the top teams were the Bulls, Knicks and Lakers.  On the other hand, the emergence of Steph Curry and Golden State has the potential to help build another powerful brand.

Some more thoughts…

The Fan Equity metric is just one possible means for assessing fan bases.  In this year’s NFL rankings I reported several more analyses that focus on different market outcomes.  These were social media following, road attendance and win sensitivity (bandwagon fans).  Looking at social following tells us something about the future of the brand as it (broadly) captures fan interest of a younger demographic.  Road Attendance tells us something about national rather than local following.  These analyses also use statistical models to control for market and team performance effects.

Social Equity

Top Social Equity Team: The Lakers

Bottom Social equity: The Nets

Comment: The Lakers are an immensely strong brand on many dimensions.  The Nets are a mid-range brand when you look at raw numbers.  But they suffer when we account for them operating in the NY market.

Road Equity

Top Road Equity: The Lakers

Bottom Road Equity: Portland

Comment: The Lakers dominate.  And as this analysis was done looking at fixed effects across 15 years it is not solely due to Kobe Bryant.  Portland does well locally but is not of much interest nationally.

It is possible to do even more.  We can even look at factors such as win or price sensitivity. Win sensitivity (or bandwagon behavior) tells us whose fans only show up when a team is winning and price sensitivity tells us if a fan base is willing to show up when prices go up.  I’m skipping these latter two analyses today just to avoid overkill (available upon request).  The big message is that we can potentially construct a collection of metrics that provide a fairly comprehensive and deep understanding of each team’s fan base and brand.

Note: I have left one team off the list.  I have decided to stop reporting the local teams (Emory is in Atlanta).  The local teams have all been great to both myself and the Emory community.  This is just a small effort to eliminate some headaches for myself.

Finally… The complete list

City Fan Equity
Boston 5
Charlotte 27
Chicago 3
Cleveland 20
Dallas 15
Denver 11
Detroit 25
GoldenState 16
Houston 7
Indiana 21
LAClips 17
LALakers 2
Memphis 29
Miami 4
Milwaukee 14
Minnesota 22
Brooklyn 28
NewOrleans 24
NYKnicks 1
OKCity 13
Orlando 19
Philadelphia 26
Phoenix 9
Portland 6
Sacramento 10
SanAntonio 12
Toronto 18
Utah 8
Washington 23
 

Amateur Sports and Brands

HBO Sports recently created a detailed report on the IOC.  The RIO Olympics do not come off well.  Pollution, doping, corruption and athlete exploitation are at the top of the list.  It is a fascinating story that seems to play out with each Olympic Games.

This issue of fair compensation for the athletes is high on the list. The number discussed in the report was $4 billion.  The question is whether and how this money from rights fees and sponsors should be allocated to the athletes.  Is (and should) there be an Olympic Ed O’Bannon?

In many respects this starts to sound like the debates about college sports in the US.  These debates are usually cast in terms of fairness.   to the athletes versus arguments about the purity of the sport or appropriateness of academic institutions running pro teams.

These debates are at best incomplete without considering the role of marketing and brands.  While college football players supply the product, the brands owned by the colleges or the Olympics is what drives fan interest.  Leonard Fournette is a Heisman favorite and a huge star.  But does he draw fans to LSU.  the truth is he probably doesn’t (in the short-term).  In the long-term its stars like Fournette that create the brand equity. 

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Likewise, in the case of the Olympics – we could ask how much interest in driven by the current athletes?  and how much is driven by the attachment people have to the Olympics (the brand).

carllewis

I think (in the US) the Olympic brand is about Carl Lewis, Bruce Jenner, Mary Lou Retton, Jesse Owens, Cassius Clay or many others.  It remains to be seen who from the current crop breaks out.

The real problem, I believe is one of equity.  This is true in both college sports and the Olympics.  The fundamental issue is who gets to harvest the value of the brands.  The problem – to many folks – is that this seems to just end up being the people that control the institutions at any one moment.  The athletes that have built the brands (the stars of the past) and the athletes that create the product (this years athletes) tend to get left out in the cold.

 

2015 NFL Fan Equity Rankings

Note: For Part 2 of our rankings (NFL Social Media Equity) click here 

For the past three years, we have tried to answer the question of which teams have the “best” fans. “Best” is a funny word that can mean a lot of things but what we are really trying to get at is what team has the most avid, engaged, passionate and supportive fans. The twist is that we are doing this using hard data, and that we are doing it in a very controlled and statistically careful fashion.

By hard data we mean data on actual fan behavior. In particular, we are focused on market outcomes like attendance, prices or revenues. A lot of marketing research focused on branding issues relies on things like consumer surveys. This is fine in some ways, but opinion surveys are also problematic. It’s one thing to just say you are a fan of a local team, and quite another to be willing to pay several thousand dollars to purchase a season ticket.

To truly understand fan engagement, it’s important to statistically control for temporary changes in the environment. This is a huge issue in sports because fans almost always chase a winner. The real quality of the sports brand is revealed when fans support a team through the tough times. The Packers or Steelers will sell-out the year after they go 6-10, not so much for the Jaguars. The other thing that separates sports brands from consumer brands is the cities themselves. The support a New York team gets in terms of attendance and pricing is always going to be tough to achieve for the team in Charlotte.

In terms of the nuts and bolts of what we are about to present, we use fifteen years of data on NFL team performance, ticket prices, market populations, median incomes, won-loss records and multiple other factors. We create statistical models of box office revenue, and then see which teams over- and under- perform the model’s predictions.   For a much fuller description, and some limitations about what we are doing click here.

So who has the best fans? The winner this year is the Dallas Cowboys followed by the Patriots, Giants, Ravens, and Jets. The Cowboys have a storied history, a market that loves all forms of football, and a world-class stadium. “Deflate-gate” hasn’t hit the window of our analysis yet (it is after the 2014-2015 season), but the Pats strong showing in our ranking suggests that the impact will be small. The Jets position might be somewhat surprising, but this team draws well, and has great pricing power without a lot of winning on the field.

Maybe the biggest surprise is some of the teams that aren’t at the top. The Steelers and Packers have great fan followings.  The Seahawks are slowly developing a great fan base.  And these teams will do better when we switch to non-financial metrics such as social media following. But for the current “revenue premium” model these teams just don’t price high enough. In a way, these teams with massive season ticket waiting lists are the most supportive of their fans.

At the bottom we have the Bills, Jags, Raiders, Browns and Dolphins. There are some interesting and storied teams on this list. The Raiders have a ton of passion in the end zone but maybe not throughout the stadium.   Cleveland may have never recovered from the loss of the Ravens, and the recreation of the Browns. Florida is almost always a problem on our lists. Whether it is the weather or the fact that many of the locals are transplants that didn’t grow up with the team, Florida teams just don’t get the support of teams in other regions.

2015 NFL FAN EQUITY

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory 2015.

2014 NBA Fan Quality Part 1: Fan & Social Equity

Note: This summer we are studying the fan quality of various sports leagues.  We have already examined MLB, NHL, and College Basketball.

This week we turn our attention to analyses of the NBA fan bases.  Today, we start with our signature “Fan Equity” analysis that is based on a revenue-premium measure of brand equity.  We also include a ranking based on our “Social Media Equity” metric.  The Fan Equity measure is our gold standard because it reflects what fans are willing to spend after controlling for team performance and market potential.  In general terms, marketers are almost always better off assessing customers based on how they spend their money rather than what they say.  However, no metric is perfect, and our Fan Equity measure can definitely be criticized.  Our Social Media Equity measure, while only based on a couple of years of data, is a useful supplement to the Fan Equity measure.  The Social Media analysis allows for fans from outside the market to be counted in a team’s equity score; the social media equity measure is not constrained by capacity limitations, and team pricing strategies less influence the measure.

2014 NBA FAN EQUITYFan Equity

The winners in our 2014 Fan equity rankings are fairly consistent with the conventional wisdom.  We rank the Knicks 1st, the Lakers 2nd, the Celtics 3rd, the Bulls 4th and the Heat 5th.  The Knicks finish is largely driven by their exceptional pricing power.  The Knicks sell out while charging the highest prices in the league.  The Lakers are second in terms of pricing, and also do very well in terms of attendance.  This is indicative of exceptional fan loyalty, given that the Lakers won only 33% of their games last year.  Miami is perhaps the most intriguing team on the list.  Future years will reveal how much “Fan Equity” is owned by the Heat, and how much was temporarily contributed by LeBron James.

The next few teams on the list are where things get especially interesting.  Portland finished 6th on the list.  This finish continues to provide support for the notion that Portland is an extraordinary sports town for a small market team.  While market size is important in terms of TV deals, when leagues consider expansion Portland should not be neglected.  Cleveland’s finish is also notable.  While Cleveland has suffered in recent years, there does appear to be a solid base of support.  With great young talent and LeBron returning, this should be an fascinating story to watch.  Of course, on the downside, Cleveland fans are likely to find their loyalty rewarded with higher prices.

At the bottom of the list, we DON’T have the Atlanta Hawks!  The Memphis Grizzlies are second from the bottom.  Memphis simply doesn’t generate the revenues that they should for a team of their quality.  At the very bottom, we have the Nets.  Yes, they are in New York, and even more so in the hipster paradise of Brooklyn.  They draw and play well.  So, what is the problem?  When you compare the Nets fan support to that of other big market teams like the Knicks, Bulls and Lakers, the Nets just don’t have the pricing and drawing power that they should.

Please note that we develop our revenue forecasting models using thirteen years of data, but only use the last three years to rank Fan Equity.  We limit the Fan equity rankings to three years because while fan loyalty and brand equity are enduring, they do change over time (this is also why we don’t simply estimate fixed effects).

Social Media Equity

As we have previously noted, Social Media Equity has some advantages (and disadvantages) relative to our Fan Equity measure.  The big difference is that the social media metric isn’t constraint by prices, capacities and travel distances.  Maybe the biggest disadvantage is that we only have limited data for these calculations.  In the table below, we provide our Social Media Equity rankings, and also a ranking for the year-over-year growth rates.

2014 NBA SOCIAL EQUITY

The top teams in terms of social media equity very similar to the Fan Equity rankings.  The Lakers are 1st followed by the Bulls, Heat and Celtics.  In 5th place, however, we have the Rockets.  These rankings again show the extreme strength of the Lakers and Bulls.  The Miami results should again come with an asterisk due to the LeBron James effect.  The Rockets results suggest hope for the future.  Social media users tend to be younger and less affluent, so perhaps the Social Equity measure is more of a leading indicator of where a fan base is going.  Of the top teams, the Lakers and Bulls are at the top and growing while Celtics and Rockets show slowing growth.

The bottom of the list includes the Pistons, Grizzlies, Knicks, Raptors, and again in last place, the Nets.  The Knicks are the most interesting story.  While this team draws and extracts maximum prices, they may be falling behind with younger fans.  However, playing in Manhattan, we seriously doubt that this team will ever struggle with fans.

In our next post, we will examine the sensitivity of attendance (demand) to price and winning.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.

2014 College Basketball Fan Equity Rankings

As we publish our ranking of college basketball fan base support across the “power” conferences (AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, SEC, & PAC 12), we can already hear the abuse we are about to take on Twitter and through the media.  Our rankings are based on a statistical analysis of self-reported revenue data.  We create a statistical model of revenue as a function of team quality (winning percentage, NCAA tournament qualification, etc…) and market potential (conference affiliation, median income, area population, number of students, etc…) and then compare the model’s prediction to the self-reported revenues.  Yes, we get that this self-reported revenue data can be a bit quirky, but it’s what the schools choose to report.

The key point in the analysis is that we are looking at support after controlling for team quality.  Some of our critics seem to think that selling out a 16,000 seat arena when your team regularly wins 30 plus games and makes deep tournament runs is amazing support.  Reality check: pretty much any major school would be able to sell out under these conditions.

Our overall top 15 schools are listed in the table below.  Louisville repeats last year’s 1st place finish.  The rest of the top five are Duke, Arizona, Texas and Xavier.  Other notables include Kentucky in 7th, North Carolina in 11th and Indiana in 12thWe fully realize that Kentucky fans will once again be incensed by these rankings. 

2014 CBB Fan Equity

Strictly speaking, the fan equity rankings are probably most appropriately done within each conference due to conference revenue sharing, but it seemed like more fun to do a simple list of the top schools.  At the other end of the spectrum, we have the bottom finishers in each conference (based on conference affiliation in 2013-2014).  In the ACC, the data says that the worst fan base is Boston College.  In the Big Ten, Iowa is in the cellar.  The last place fan base in the Big Twelve is Baylor.  Seton Hall just beats out DePaul for last place in the Big East.  Colorado is last in the Pac 12.  In a surprise, given their recent success, it appears that Florida basketball still ranks after football and spring football as sports that the Gator nation cares about.  And finally, at the bottom of the AAC we have the Cincinnati Bearcats.

For more on the concept of fan equity, please click here and here.  For our ranking of the “non-power” conferences, please click here.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.

2014 College Basketball Fan Equity: Introduction and “Non-Power” Rankings

When we evaluate college sports fan bases, we find ourselves in an altered environment from the professional leagues.  There are differences in data availability (both good and bad) and differences in structure of the leagues that must be considered.

In the case of data, for example, we do not have sources for ticket prices, and team payroll is not relevant (as of now).  However, on the plus side, we have self-reported revenue for each sport (and yes, we know that schools employ different accounting rules).

The other major issue is that of league structure.  While Division I college basketball operates as a singular entity for the purposes of championships, revenue sharing for basketball and football occurs at the level of the conferences.  This makes it a bit tricky to compare schools across conferences since a bottom tier school in a power conference starts out with significant revenue, while a non-power conference school has to earn their own keep.  For example, if we don’t adjust for conference membership, Northwestern ranks as a top five fan equity team simply because their Big Ten shared revenues are by themselves a phenomenal haul for a team of Northwestern’s quality.

Because of this conference issue, we prefer to report our fan equity rankings at the conference level rather than a single ranking for all D-1 teams.  Today we begin with the “non-power” conference teams.  For the purposes of college basketball, we are identifying the “power” conferences as: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, & PAC-12.  Our top ten teams are based on the last 3 years (for our statistical analysis we use all data since 2001 but for the rankings we use team results for the last 3 years).  The rankings reflect the conference the team played in during the 2013-2014 season.

The top ten “non-power” conferences rankings are given below.  The number 1 fan base was Dayton.  The Flyers were followed by Gonzaga and UNLV.

2014 Fan Equity Non Power

When we do these rankings we always have to make the point that our estimates of fan base quality are based on fan support AFTER controlling for team quality and market potential.  Therefore a team like Duquesne can still make the list because the fan support is very good despite the team struggling on the court.

At the other end of the scale, the bottom 10 teams in terms of fan equity are given below.  The team with the worst fan support in all of D-1 college basketball is UNC Greensboro.

2014 Worst Fan Equity Non Power

We can also evaluate which teams are trending upward and which are falling fast.  We do this by comparing the fan equity for the first three years of our data with the last 3 years.  This analysis is important because it speaks to which coaches and athletic directors have been the most successful.  At the “non-power” conference level, this list might be a good place for major schools to search for coaches and athletic directors.  Unlike  the traditional approach of just looking at winning or losing, this change metric speaks to the creation of “economic value” while controlling for factors such as team tradition, investment, capacity and other fixed factors for which sports executives should not get credit (or blame).

2014 Risers Non power

The biggest risers in the non-power conferences include Gonzaga, Kent State, Dayton, Northern Iowa and Nevada.

In terms of moving in the wrong direction, Montana & Florida A&M had the biggest drop in fan equity.

For more on the concept of fan equity, please click here and here.  In our next post, we will examine the fan equity rankings for the “power” conferences.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory 2014.