Paul Adams, the VP of Ticket Sales for the Atlanta Braves, joined us to discuss the role of analytics in determining a spot for a new stadium.
Our city ranking series continues today with a look at cities with three professional sports teams. These markets tend to be a bit on the smaller side, but many have significant sports histories. We also fully admit that we struggled a bit with how to classify several of these markets. For example, what is the city of Milwaukee? Is Milwaukee a two sport town with NBA and MLB franchises or should we include the Packers and call it a three sport town? Having lived in Chicago, it always seemed like all the Wisconsin teams should be lumped together. Toronto was another decision. Until now, we have only considered US cities, and avoided one professional team Canadian markets such as Calgary and Edmonton. So before the complaints begin, please realize that we have made some assumptions about markets.
The table on the right provides our ranking of the eight markets with three professional teams. According to the data, St. Louis is the best of these markets. Professor Lewis used to live in St. Louis and the first place ranking was a bit of a surprise to him. While the Cardinals have an amazing following, Lewis’ sense was that the Rams and Blues only had average fan bases. The Cardinals do have an exceptional fan base ranking 4th in MLB in both fan equity and social media equity. The Blues have an above average fan base ranking 14th in the NHL. The Rams do struggle with a fan equity ranking of 22th in the NFL. So it really is the Cardinals that elevate St. Louis to the top of the list.
Following St. Louis, we have Toronto ranked 2nd, Milwaukee 3rd and Pittsburgh 4th. Frankly, we would have predicted Pittsburgh would rank higher. The issue is that our fan equity metric is based on a “revenue premium” model, and the Steelers don’t seem to price nearly as high as they could. But, this was a close competition. Toronto has the best NHL fan base and the Packers and Steelers have devoted followings.
At the bottom of the list we have Tampa Bay. The Lightning ranked 18th in NHL fan equity. The Bucs ranked 29th in the NFL and Rays ranked 22nd in MLB. On a side note, the Atlanta ranking should put to rest any complaints about the Braves relocating. The Braves have delivered phenomenal quality and have only gained an average fan following. Add in a history that includes players like Hank Aaron and Dale Murphy, and you would expect that the Braves would have a monster following. Our expectation is that the move to Cobb County and the building of a mixed use development around the stadium should lead to a stronger fan base in the near future.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.