South Florida & Marquette Best at Converting Talent into NBA Draft Picks: Ranking the Big East

In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school.  We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.

Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the Big East.    The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the Big East (for more details on our methodology, please click here).  The University of South Florida (USF) was the leader in the Big East in converting talent into NBA draft picks.  The Bulls were followed by Marquette and then Connecticut.

 

In the period of our study, USF had no 5-Star or 4-Star recruits at all.  However, 9.5% of 3-Star recruits at USF were drafted into the NBA (The overall national draft rate for 3-Star recruits during this period was 3%).

Marquette performed better than traditional Big East powers UConn, Syracuse, and Georgetown in the period of our study.  This is largely due to 13% of 3-Star recruits and 14% of non-ranked recruits from Marquette being drafted.  This is incredible considering that the national draft rate for 3-Star recruits was 3%, the rate for non-ranked recruits was 0.4%! While Georgetown and Syracuse were both slightly above average with respect to their 5-Star recruit drafting rates, they were both below the national average for being drafted with respect to their 4-Star recruits.  This is potentially problematic, as 4-Star recruits reflect a large portion of the recruiting classes for both schools.

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The Best Fan Bases in Big East

Our series on the Best Fan Bases in college basketball concludes looking at the BCS Conferences with an examination of the Big East Conference from 2001 to 2011.  The Louisville Cardinals are on top, followed by the Syracuse Orange and the Marquette Golden Eagles.  Seton Hall and DePaul are on the bottom of the rankings.  (Note: For additional information on our methodology, click here)

Louisville, Syracuse, and Marquette are the top three in the Big East, but also in our overall top ten.  These three schools all have excellent attendance and revenue per seat, regardless of team performance.

It’s worth pointing out a couple of the teams near the bottom of the rankings.  The Georgetown Hoyas finished 13th in the rankings, which may be surprising to college basketball fans.  While Georgetown has enjoyed some on-court success in the past decade, their home attendance has been unremarkable.  In the 2006-2007 season, Georgetown won 30 games and went to the Final Four.  However, their average home attendance was barely over 50% of capacity that season.  This may be partially explained by the Hoyas playing in an arena with capacity over 20,000, but having a relatively small student body.

DePaul finished last in our Big East fan rankings.  DePaul suffers from playing in a large arena (17,500) that is located far from campus.  Performance, attendance, and revenue per seat have all been atrocious for DePaul.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 7: Rutgers & UConn Beasts of the Big East!

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We conclude our team-level discussion with an analysis of the Big East.

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

(Please note that “Winners” are determined by the top quartile of scores, and “Losers” are the bottom quartile)

Winners: Connecticut and Rutgers are not only the big winners of the NFL Draft in the Big East, they were across the country two of the best schools for converting talent into 2013 NFL picks.  UConn produced five draft picks using talent that on average ranked outside of the top 75 during the relevant recruiting period. Rutgers had seven picks using talent that averaged just inside the top 50!  This could mean that the coaching staffs at Rutgers and UConn did a great job developing players and/or Edsall and Schiano had an eye for finding diamonds in the rough.

Middle of the Pack: In other conferences, Syracuse and USF could have been in the top quartile and thus “Winners”, because both schools produced three draft picks using talent on average outside the top 45.

Losers: Pittsburgh, Louisville and Temple all had no draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft.  Pittsburgh is the most disappointing of these schools, since they averaged talent inside the top 40 during the relevant recruiting period.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.