2014 SEC College Football Fan Equity

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The discussion of the conferences with highest fan equity begins and ends with the Southeastern Conference (SEC).  Six of the top twelve overall college football teams in our rankings are from the SEC.  For the second straight year, UGA tops our ranking of SEC college football fan equity. [For more on the overall study and methodology, please click here]

2014 SEC College Football Fan Equity

When we examine the SEC Fan Equity rankings from last year, the top 5 teams are the same except for Arkansas replacing Texas A&M.  The teams near the bottom are also relatively unchanged.   For those who are wondering why Georgia is ahead of Alabama, our explanation from last year still applies:

“The University of Georgia has the number one ranked football fan base in the SEC according to our study.  It should be pointed out that this study covers a ten year period, and that the top four ranked schools in the SEC are also among the top ranked football fan bases in the country.  So, what separates Georgia from Alabama?   Over the period of our study, both Georgia and Alabama averaged between 9 and 10 wins a season.  However, Georgia averaged 12% more in revenues per year than Alabama.  Alabama also had a couple of years in the beginning of our sample (2002 & 2004) where the home games were not all filled to capacity.  Thus, over the period of our study, when we control for team performance and other institutional factors, the Georgia fan base is just a bit more loyal and devoted.”

So why did Arkansas move up the rankings?  We believe that this could in part be due to enthusiasm resulting from the hiring of Coach Bielema.  Revenues were up for the Razorbacks last year and attendance remained relatively unchanged, despite winning less than the previous year.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.

Building Your Personal Brand: The Twitter Impact of National Signing Day

Edited NSD TwitterBuilding a Twitter following can be seen as a mechanism for developing an individual’s personal brand.  Athletes are investing in growing their personal brands at a young age.  We find evidence for this phenomenon in an examination of the young men who signed letters of intent for college football yesterday.  The table above presents a Twitter profile for the top thirty high school senior football players according to ESPN (we were not able to locate a Twitter account for Juju Smith & Dalvin Cook, so they have been excluded).   In addition to the overall total Twitter followers for each student, we also looked at the Twitter activity for each student in the last seven days.  We collected all tweets that included the student’s Twitter handle (e.g. @JabrillPeppers) over the last seven days.  The tweets were classified as having positive, negative, or neutral sentiment.   A few observations:

1)      Each student on the list has over 1,000 Twitter followers.  The median is just above 5K followers. 

2)      Students that waited until National Signing Day to announce their decision, tended to have more tweets overall and more negative tweets.

3)      The majority (85%) of the tweets over the last seven days occurred on National Signing Day.

This is just a snapshot of the top thirty, but we plan to study a larger pool of student-athletes over time, to analyze how their decisions and performance impact their personal brands.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory 2014.

 

What if the Heisman Trophy Really Was A Popularity Contest?

Ballots for the Heisman Trophy were due yesterday.  Ostensibly, the Heisman Trophy “annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity”.  However, many have argued throughout the years that the Heisman is essentially a large popularity contest.  This view is supported by the millions of dollars annually spent by universities on publicity campaigns for their Heisman candidates.  There are 928 voters for the Heisman Trophy.  This includes members of the media, former winners, and 1 “fan vote” that represents the public at large.  We were curious to see what would happen if the general public was completely responsible for determining the winner of the Heisman Trophy.  As with past studies, we decided to use Twitter as a proxy for the views of the public.  Below, we present our methodology and results.

The first thing to consider is how does one define “Popularity” on Twitter.  Often, studies will use the volume/number of mentions on Twitter as a proxy for popularity.  However, this measure does not account for sentiment (positive, negative, or neutral), which could be important in the decision to vote for someone.  So, we constructed a daily “popularity” measure that is the product of the volume of tweets mentioning a candidate and the average sentiment of those tweets (Note: we tried several specifications of the “popularity” measure, but the rankings were robust).

Once we had a method for determining popularity, we decided to look at the six Heisman Trophy finalists: Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston, A.J. McCarron, Tre Mason, Jordan Lynch, and Andre Williams.  The pie chart on the left looks at the sum of the popularity measure for each candidate over the entire season (mid-August to Dec 9th).  Johnny Manziel is by far the leader of the pack.  This could potentially be attributed to the stellar start of his season, as well as his huge following.  Heisman-favorite Jameis Winston is in second place, and A.J. McCarron is third.  It’s incredible that Manziel leads Winston by more than a 2:1 margin.  We realize that Heisman voters mark their ballots for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place, and we are simply looking at most “popular”.

We performed a similar analysis, looking at only the last month and looking at only the last week.   It’s remarkable to see the variation in “popularity” over time.  Tre Mason had a relative 5% popularity if you look at the full season, but 11% over the last month, and 24% over the last week.  In the analysis of popularity over the last week, James Winston barely edges out Manziel for 1st place.  To better understand the factors behind these movements in popularity, we would have to perform content analysis on the tweets to determine what topics were being discussed with respect to these athletes; that is left for a future study.

It is interesting to note that in the their final straw poll, Heisman Pundit has the following ranking: 1) Winston, 2) Lynch, 3) Manziel, 4) Mason, and 5) McCarron.  The “popularity” measure for over the last week gives the ranking: 1) Winston, 2) Manziel, 3) Mason, 4) McCarron, and 5) Lynch.  Jordan Lynch is the only player of these top 5 that plays for a “Non-AQ” school (Northern Illinois).  Perhaps Lynch in second place is evidence that voters look at performance on the field, and not just popularity, however if Heisman Pundit’s straw poll is correct, it seems a lot can be explained by recent popularity.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

 

 

Twitter Analysis: Who Really Talks About Their Rivals?

It’s rivalry week, and while there is much debate about the best rivalry in college football, it is generally agreed that the Iron Bowl (Auburn versus Alabama) and Ohio State versus Michigan are two of the top rivalry games in college football.  While both sides in these rivalries seem to hate each other, we were curious to determine if the level of vitriol was even or more one-sided in these two storied matchups.  What we found was interesting:  1) discussion around Michigan football seems to encompass A LOT more of the general conversation in Columbus than discussion of Buckeye football in Ann Arbor and 2) after accounting for where the game is being played, the relative level of discussion about the rival school is fairly even in Auburn and Tuscaloosa.

Similar to previous studies, we used geo-coded data from Twitter to serve as a proxy for fan conversation.  We collected all Twitter conversation in Ann Arbor, Columbus, Auburn, and Tuscaloosa for the Monday before the rivalry game in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.  We then calculated the percentage of tweets in that city that were about the opposing school’s football team (“Rival Team Share of Twitter Voice”).   Thus, we had a metric for how much of the conversation in a city was about the rival team.  It is interesting to note that we also determined the average sentiment for tweets in a city that were about the rival football team.  The average sentiment was very negative, but similar across years and cities (translation:  the toxicity of the comments about rivals is the same whether you are in Columbus, Ann Arbor, Auburn, or Tuscaloosa).

We would expect that a rivalry where both local fan bases hated (or were obsessed with) each other at a similar level would have relatively similar “Rival Team Share of Twitter Voice”.  However, we found that in the past four years, regardless of where the game is played, or who won the previous year, the percentage of conversation in Columbus regarding Michigan Football is at least twice the percentage of conversation in Ann Arbor regarding Ohio State football.  Thus, there seems to be a bit of an asymmetric rivalry here with respect to how much one of local fan bases spends its time talking about their rival.  It should be noted that 7% of the population of Columbus are Ohio State students (57,466 out of  809,798) while 37% of the population of Ann Arbor are Michigan students (43,426 out of 116,121).

The Auburn-Alabama rivalry seems to be more even with respect to the level of conversation regarding one’s rivals.  We found that the site of the game seems to change the direction of the ratio of the “Rival Team Share of Twitter Voice”.  If the game is in Tuscaloosa, then local Alabama fans spend more of their time talking about Auburn football than local Auburn fans spend discussing Alabama football.  If the game is in Auburn, then that trend is reversed.  Perhaps the Iron Bowl being played in their hometown adds some more desire to trash talk for the local fans.  It should be noted that 45% of the population of Auburn are Auburn students (25,469 out of 56,908) while 37% of the population of Tuscaloosa are Alabama students (34,852 out of 93,357).

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

Ranking the Most “Volatile” Fans in the SEC: LSU, Ole Miss, & UGA Lead the Way

Last weekend, Georgia beat LSU in a highly entertaining, closely contested football game.  After the game, fans were undoubtedly sad in Baton Rouge and elated in Athens.  These emotions were manifested through the tweeting activity of fans in both cities.  Using data from Topsy Pro, we were able to collect football-related tweets originating from Athens and Baton Rouge after the game.  There were almost twice as many tweets originating from Athens, and the ratio of positive to negative tweets was 9:1 in Athens, whereas the ratio was 1:9 in Baton Rouge.  As transplants who have lived in Atlanta for a few years now, we can attest to the overwhelming passion towards SEC football in the South.  Recently, we used data from Twitter to describe the emotions of NFL football fan bases during the 2012 regular season.  We decided that performing a similar analysis on the SEC football fan bases would be an interesting study.  We decided to empirically determine which SEC football fan bases really “live & die” by the performance of their teams.

The methodology for our study was straightforward.  We considered all of the regular season games from 2012 and the first five weeks of the 2013 season.  For each game, we recorded who won the game, and we collected football-related tweets from all of the SEC college towns for one, two, and three days after the game.  It would be reasonable to ask why we didn’t collect tweets from Atlanta for a UGA game or from all of Kentucky for a UK game.  We were trying to isolate tweets primarily from fans of the SEC team, and we believe that the college town is the best proxy for mainly fans of the college.  Atlanta is full of UGA fans, but there are also Alabama fans, Auburn fans, Florida fans, and pretty much fans of all SEC teams.  We wanted reactions of UGA fans to the UGA games, not the reactions of Auburn fans to the UGA games.  By football-related tweets, we mean tweets that mentioned any words that were commonly related to the particular college football team.  The tweets were coded as positive, negative, or neutral.  We were able to determine the “sentiment” of the collection of tweets as a rough index (1-100) of the ratio of positive to negative tweets.

Thus after each game, we were able to calculate the sentiment of the fan base.  We determined on average how positive a fan base was after a win, and how negative they were after a loss.  To understand the “volatility” of a fan base, we looked at the delta between the average sentiment after a win and the average sentiment after a loss.  In other words, how big is the difference in a fan base’s “high” after a win and “low” after a loss.  We believe that this metric best captures “living & dying” by the performance of your team.  After computing this metric for each fan base, we determined that LSU has the most “volatile” fans in the SEC.

The chart on the left gives the full rankings for the SEC.  It should be noted that these rankings were robust to whether we looked at how fans felt one, two, or three days after a game.  We believe that volatility is in part driven by 1) the expectations of the fan base and 2) the expressiveness of the fan base.  The top three schools in our rankings seem to get to the top for different reasons. The volatility of LSU & UGA fans is driven more by extreme negativity after losses, whereas the volatility of Ole Miss fans is a function of high levels of happiness after wins. This could, of course, in part be due to expectations.  UGA & LSU fans may have higher expectations than Ole Miss fans.  An examination of the data reveals that LSU fans had an extremely negative reaction to the Alabama loss last year and the Georgia loss this year.  These fans even had an overall negative reaction to a close WIN over Auburn last year!  UGA fans spewed a lot of vitriol on Twitter after the loss to Clemson this year.  Ole Miss fans, on the other hand, did not have overly negative reactions to losses, and were very positive after wins (e.g. the win over Texas this year).   It is interesting to note that the Alabama fan base is at the bottom of the volatility list.  Alabama only lost one game during the period of this study (a good reason for publishing this list again next year when we have more data).  But, even after wins, the Alabama fan base is not very positive on Twitter.  There are several tweets that are critical about the margin of victory.  If Alabama does ever go on some type of losing streak in the future (as unlikely as that seems), it will be fascinating to observe the reaction on Twitter.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

 

 

 

 

Twitter Analysis: College Station Buzzing About Alabama

It’s amazing what a difference a year (or ten months) can make.  Last November, Johnny Manziel was a redshirt freshman leading a two-touchdown underdog team into the hostile environment of Bryant-Denny Stadium.  This weekend, the Heisman-Trophy winning, John Hancock-machine leads the sixth-ranked Aggies into a matchup with Alabama that is undoubtedly one of the most anticipated games of the college football season.  ESPN College GameDay will be in College Station, even though the game is on CBS.

We decided to use Twitter to study (1) how much more chatter is there about the game this year versus last year and (2) how is the chatter different between the two campuses?  Our key findings: (1) The pre-game chatter has increased over 600% in College Station and 350% in Tuscaloosa as compared to last year and (2) The level of pre-game chatter was over 3oo% greater in College Station versus Tuscaloosa in 2012 and over 400% greater in 2013.

The methodology for our study is quite straightforward.  As in our Michigan-Notre Dame “rivalry” study, we used Twitter data from Topsy Pro Analytics.  We essentially collected all of the tweets originating from College Station, TX and Tuscaloosa, AL in the Sunday-Wednesday period before the game in 2012 and before the upcoming game.  In the pool of tweets from College Station, we counted how many of them mentioned a term that was related to Alabama (e.g. “Alabama”, “Bama”, “Tide”, and “Saban”).  We divided this number of tweets by the total number of tweets collected from College Station.  We performed this analysis separately for 2012 and 2013.  This gave us the Twitter Share of Voice for the match-up in 2012 and 2013 in College Station.  We did the exact same thing for the pool of tweets from Tuscaloosa in 2012 and 2013, but we looked for Texas A&M related terms (e.g. “Aggies”, “TAMU”, “Manziel”, and “Johnny Football”).  We believe that the Twitter Share of Voice metric is a good proxy for the level of game related chatter in the two markets.

The results indicate that while both communities seem to care a lot more about the game this year than they did last year, the Texas A&M community cares a lot more about the match-up than the people in Tuscaloosa.  We look forward to performing a similar analysis when Alabama plays Auburn later this year.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University, 2013.

Instant Twitter Analysis: USC angrier but Texas Cares More

When teams lose fans get angry and coaches get fired.  Twitter now allows us to get an instant picture of fan anger.  Over the first week and day of the college football season, two coaches have emerged as mostly likely to be run out of town.  According to Topsy, Mack Brown has been the subject of the most negative tweets (2,550) but Lane Kiffen has the highest rate of negative to positive tweets (2 times as many negative as positive tweets).

USC fans are angrier but Texas fans are more involved.

College Football Brand Equity Rankings: The Overall List

Over the last two weeks, we have been reporting our football fan base rankings conference by conference.  Today, we turn to our overall ranking.  We started the list with an analysis of the brand/customer equity of the major conferences.  The Big Ten and the SEC are the leading conferences largely because they have strong TV deals.  That being said, the number one team on our list is not a member of either the Big Ten or the SEC.

Number one on the list is the University of Texas.  The Longhorns have some built in advantages that make it such a powerhouse.  Texas is the flagship school in a highly populated state with an incredible football culture.  Texas is also interesting because it is such a frequent target in realignment discussions.   Texas would bring the most valuable fan base to any conference.   In fact, Texas football is such a valuable property that we doubt that they will move anytime soon.  Texas is a strong enough brand to keep the Big Twelve a viable conference.  This means that Texas has an immense amount of bargaining power within the Big Twelve; which would be lost in a move to the Big Ten or the SEC.

Number 2 on the list is a bit of a surprise.  Based on the numbers, we found Georgia to have the second highest customer equity.  We go into more detail about Georgia football in our SEC writeup.

Number three on the list is the Big Ten’s Ohio State Buckeyes.  Ohio State has many of the same advantages as Texas, as they are the flagship school in a highly populated and football crazy state.

Numbers 4 and 5 on the list also hail from the Big Ten.  We have Penn State in 4th place and Michigan in 5th.  These are two interesting cases, since PSU is obviously in a transitional stage, and may fade a bit over the next couple of years, while Michigan is making moves to become even more profitable.  In positions 6 through 8, we have Alabama, Auburn and Florida.  Our rankings seem to confirm that the SEC and Big Ten are college football’s top conferences.

The 9th place team is one that we haven’t talked about in any of our previous rankings, Notre Dame.  Our guess is that Notre Dame fans will feel slighted by their 9th place ranking.  But, at the end of the day, our approach is driven by a combination of revenue and team quality data.  What we find is that Notre Dame is a great college football brand, but far from the dominant brand their fans believe it to be.

In tenth place we have the lone West Coast team in the rankings.  The Washington Huskies were the surprise leader in the Pac 12, beating out teams like USC and Oregon.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

PREVIOUS: RANKING THE SEC

Ranking SEC Football Fans: Georgia beats out Alabama

We are presenting a series ranking the “best” fan bases in college football.  The study uses data from the past ten years and the rankings are based on Revenue Premium Brand Equity.  For more information on the analysis/methodology, please click here.

As a rule, when we begin any analysis we start with no prior expectations about the results.  We let theory and numbers guide our findings.  However, living in the South, it is hard not to witness the extreme passion and loyalty of SEC fans on a daily basis.  The SEC football season is year-round (season, recruiting, spring football).  Therefore, we were not surprised when the SEC was the top rated conference in our college football Revenue Premium Brand Equity rankings.   Given the passion of SEC fans, we expect that our SEC conference rankings will engender a lot of “constructive discussion”.

The University of Georgia has the number one ranked football fan base in the SEC according to our study.  It should be pointed out that this study covers a ten year period, and that the top four ranked schools in the SEC are also among the top ranked football fan bases in the country.  So, what separates Georgia from Alabama?   Over the period of our study, both Georgia and Alabama averaged between 9 and 10 wins a season.  However, Georgia averaged 12% more in revenues per year than Alabama.  Alabama also had a couple of years in the beginning of our sample (2002 & 2004) where the home games were not all filled to capacity.  Thus, over the period of our study, when we control for team performance and other institutional factors, the Georgia fan base is just a bit more loyal and devoted.

Auburn University finished in third place, being just edged out by its friendly neighbor, Alabama.  The Crimson Tide generated slightly more revenue per year on average than the Tigers, despite averaging almost the identical number of wins.  Also, while Alabama’s revenues are growing, Auburn has been facing a decline.   The University of Florida finished fourth in our study.   The Gators actually average 6.9% more revenue per year than Auburn, however they also averaged 0.5 more wins per season during the period of our study.  Remember, our conjecture is that it is easier for a fan to shell out for a team when the team is winning games, thus we control for team performance.

Vanderbilt is ranked 11th in our study.  We would like to point out that the last couple of years have been positive for the Commodores, and although lagged, the revenues for the football program seem to be improving.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State are at the bottom of the study of SEC fan bases.  During the period of our study, Ole Miss and Mississippi State actually averaged more wins per season than Vanderbilt.  However, Ole Miss generated roughly the same amount of revenue as Vandy, and Mississippi State generated 20% less.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

PREVIOUS: RANKING THE PAC-12

NEXT: OVERALL RANKINGS

Ranking PAC 12 Football Fan Bases

We are presenting a series ranking the “best” fan bases in college football.  The study uses data from the past ten years and the rankings are based on Revenue Premium Brand Equity.  For more information on the analysis/methodology, please click here.

For those of you following along with our conference by conference rankings of fan support, you may have noticed an omission.  We skipped over the PAC 12 in our countdown to the top conference.  But, before we talk about the SEC and the Overall Rankings next week, we did want to make some comments about the PAC 12.

Or maybe it is just one comment: We have trouble understanding this conference.

The method we use to rank fan base support uses something called a “revenue premium” model of brand equity.  The big idea is that we look at fan support while controlling for team quality and market potential.  Like any method, there is room to critique our approach.  As an aside, we do enjoy the helpful comments provided to us via Twitter about our combined intelligence and lack of sports knowledge.  As a second aside you should be aware that our sports pedigree includes Manish’s time playing Tecmo Super Bowl (Wayne Haddix rules!) back in Maryland, and Mike’s experience playing a great deal of Madden on the Sega back in the early 90s.

The trouble with the PAC 12 is that its premier teams tend to have revenues that are far lower than teams of similar quality in other BCS conferences.  Oregon is the poster child for this issue.  This article from Rachel Bachmann highlights the difficulty in evaluating Oregon relative to its peer schools.  Over the last decade, the Ducks have been remarkably productive on the field, but the revenues are nowhere near that of the teams Oregon has been playing in BCS games.   As Bachman points out, Oregon’s revenues would place it near the bottom of the Big Ten or the SEC.

The second issue with Oregon is its stadium, and perhaps it’s pricing.  Oregon sells out (above capacity) regularly, but it plays in a ~50,000 seat stadium rather than a 90,000 or 100,000 seat stadium.  The strong demand data suggests that Oregon could easily improve revenues through a price hike (as a third aside, there is a lot of chatter this summer about efforts to grow revenues through dynamic pricing).  There are, of course, reasons not to raise prices.  Oregon may feel like it is in the process of still growing a loyal following.  They may be intentionally underpricing in order to invest in their future fan base.  Or maybe Oregon is the rare school that does not view the football program as a pure revenue generator (they seem to have other sources of revenue ).

So rather than provide an explicit ranking of the PAC 12 schools’ fan bases we decided to list the schools in different tiers.  As a fourth aside, we do realize this is a copout.

Tier 1: In tier one, we have the University of Washington, Arizona State University, Colorado and Utah*.  These schools make the list for different reasons.  Washington is the clear winner in terms of fan support relative to team performance, while Colorado and ASU have solid revenues given their on-field performance.  We have an asterisk next to Utah because it is hard to predict how its fan support will translate to the BCS.

Tier 2: In the second tier, we have USC, Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State and Arizona.  The USC story has some similarity to the Oregon story.  It’s a great program, but a program that often doesn’t sell out.  As a fun fact, the West Coast USC actually generates slightly lower revenues than the East Coast USC.

Tier 3: In third tier we have Cal, Stanford and Washington State.  Here, the biggest surprise to some may be Stanford, given its string of BCS bowl games, and fourth place ranking in the pre-season USA TODAY coaches poll.  However, it is important to note two things: 1) Before Coach Harbaugh, Stanford was terrible, and the fan support was negligible, and 2) Although Stanford has been to three straight BCS bowls, the fan support has been trailing the rate of success.  This is the first year where they have sold out their season tickets.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

PREVIOUS: RANKING THE BIG 10

NEXT: RANKING THE SEC