Iowa State & Kansas Best at Converting Talent into NBA Draft Picks: Ranking the Big-12

In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school.  We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.

Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the Big-12.  The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the Big-12 (for more details on our methodology, please click here).  Iowa State was the clear leader in the Big-12 in converting talent into NBA draft picks.  The Cyclones were followed by traditional power Kansas and then Texas.

In the period of our study, 15% of 2-Star recruits and 13% of non-rated recruits at Iowa State were drafted into the NBA.  This is very impressive given the overall national draft rates: 0.8% for 2-Star recruits and 0.4% for non-rated recruits!  Furthermore, two 3-Star recruits were drafted from Iowa State.  Iowa State did a remarkable job of converting its available talent into NBA draft picks.

Perennial power Kansas finished second in the rankings.  Kansas had an overwhelming 30% of its overall recruits drafted into the NBA.  The Jayhawks also had 39% of its 4-Star recruits drafted (compared to the 13% national 4-Star average).  Third place Texas had 66% of its 5-Star recruits drafted (compared to the 51% national 5-Star average).




2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 6: ISU, K-State, & TCU on Top of Big 12!

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the Big 12.

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

(Please note that “Winners” are determined by the top quartile of scores, and “Losers” are the bottom quartile)

Winners: Iowa State had the worst average recruited talent during the relevant time period, but still managed to produce more picks in this draft than Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.   In Manhattan, they managed to produce three draft picks in this draft despite having an average class ranking just outside of the top 60 during the relevant recruiting period.

Middle of the Pack: While Oklahoma and Texas are both in the “Middle of the Pack,” it should be noted that they represent the two extremes of this segment.  Both schools averaged top 10 recruiting classes, but Oklahoma produced six draft picks, while Texas only produced three.

Losers: Texas Tech had no draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft, however Oklahoma State’s performance seems to be most alarming.  Despite having averaged a recruiting class just outside the top 30, they managed to produce only one draft pick.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.