Round of 32 Recap: Twitter Sadness in Kansas, Elation in Kentucky

As part of the Goizeuta Bracket Buzz contest, we were tasked to determine which of the 16 matchups in the Round of 32 would produce the most pre-game “buzz” on Twitter.  Essentially, we looked at the 24 hour period before tip-off, and collected all tweets that mentioned either team or the match-up in that period.  The Kentucky-Wichita State matchup had the most pre-game buzz.  The chart below shows the pre-game buzz for all 16 matchups (it has been indexed with Kentucky-Wichita State as 100).  It is interesting to note that two teams in Kansas (Kansas & Wichita State) lost this weekend, and two teams in Kentucky (Louisville & Kentucky) won.  We were interested to see if this had an impact on all (not just basketball related) Twitter activity in each state.  We compared the average sentiment and volume of tweets for the three previous weekends with the sentiment and volume of tweets this past weekend in each state.  There was a 26.5% increase in the volume of tweets in Kansas this past weekend and a 9.7% increase in the volume of tweets in Kentucky.  The sentiment (the mix of positive, negative, and neutral tweets indexed between 1 and 100) of all tweets in Kansas decreased by 4.5%!  The sentiment in Kentucky increased by 1.9%.

Round 3 Pre Game

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.

Iowa State & Kansas Best at Converting Talent into NBA Draft Picks: Ranking the Big-12

In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school.  We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.

Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the Big-12.  The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the Big-12 (for more details on our methodology, please click here).  Iowa State was the clear leader in the Big-12 in converting talent into NBA draft picks.  The Cyclones were followed by traditional power Kansas and then Texas.

In the period of our study, 15% of 2-Star recruits and 13% of non-rated recruits at Iowa State were drafted into the NBA.  This is very impressive given the overall national draft rates: 0.8% for 2-Star recruits and 0.4% for non-rated recruits!  Furthermore, two 3-Star recruits were drafted from Iowa State.  Iowa State did a remarkable job of converting its available talent into NBA draft picks.

Perennial power Kansas finished second in the rankings.  Kansas had an overwhelming 30% of its overall recruits drafted into the NBA.  The Jayhawks also had 39% of its 4-Star recruits drafted (compared to the 13% national 4-Star average).  Third place Texas had 66% of its 5-Star recruits drafted (compared to the 51% national 5-Star average).

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Why Texas and Oklahoma State are Ahead of Kansas: The Best Fan Bases in the Big 12

One of the more entertaining aspects of producing the Emory Sports Marketing Analytics blog has been emotional nature of the criticisms that we have received.  Our series ranking fan bases has been particularly provocative.

What does the preceding have to do with the Big Twelve?  Some of our critics claimed that our rankings were “silly” because Kansas was not ranked in the Top Ten, while Oklahoma State and Texas were.   We thought that we would take a bit more time with this post to investigate how we could possibly come to this result.

As a starting point, if you had asked us to name the top fan bases in college basketball before we ran the numbers we would have said (in no particular order) Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Indiana.  In other words, we would have bravely identified the conventional wisdom.  But our goal at Emory Sports Marketing Analytics is to go beyond the conventional wisdom, and to see what the numbers say.

Our emphasis on financial metrics also leads to some complaints.  This is somewhat odd given that we are covering sports that are clearly run like businesses.  It has been reported that Bill Self’s current deal with Kansas will pay him close to $50 million over ten years.  This suggests to us that Kansas very much views basketball through a financial lens.

Getting back to the conventional wisdom, we believe that Kentucky, Indiana, Kansas and Duke have exceptional fan bases.  However, we are not ready to concede that the passion felt by a Kansas fan exceeds that felt by an Oklahoma State or Texas fan.  Rather than rely on the noise created by fan bases, we examine how fans vote with their dollars.  And more to the point, we try to control for the role of on-court success.  While some may view this as crass, if you were the CEO of Apple or Coca Cola would you rather that your customers were highly loyal and willing to pay premium prices or would you rather that your brand was voted a fan favorite in an Internet poll?  The marketing concept that we are exploring is referred to as customer equity.  The basic idea is a brand’s ultimate source of revenues and profits is its customers.  Now a big caveat to this is that by measuring the value of the customer bases we are not controlling for how good of a job each institution does with managing its customer base.

The preceding list provides our breakdown of the Big Twelve.  Texas leads the way followed by Oklahoma State and then Kansas.  So what drives this result?  Over the last decade Texas has reported the largest basketball revenues in the conference followed by Kansas.  Texas’ advantage in revenue is slightly more than 4%.  More importantly, Texas generated this slightly higher revenue while winning around 5 games less per year than the Jayhawks.  Now one can argue that Texas has unique advantages or that Kansas could be generating more revenue, but our analysis is at least based on solid numbers and our dependent measure (revenue premium based brand equity) is an unambiguous term.

The other surprise was the ranking of Oklahoma State.  In this case, Kansas does produce about 25% more revenue than Oklahoma State.  But the Cowboys generated their revenue while winning about 35% less games per year and no national championships.  Both schools have proud histories and legendary past coaches.  What our analysis gets at is what would happen if both teams performed identically.  What would the environment be like at Gallagher-Iba arena if the Cowboys averaged 30 wins per year for a decade and had numerous trips to the Final Four?

(Note: The study examines 2001 to 2011, thus Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Missouri are included in the Big 12)