Elite 8 Recap: Kentucky Dominates Twitter Once Again

As part of the Goizeuta Bracket Buzz contest, we were tasked to determine which of the 4 matchups in the Elite Eight would produce the most pre-game “buzz” on Twitter.  Essentially, we looked at the 24 hour period before tip-off, and collected all tweets that mentioned either team or the match-up in that period.  The Kentucky-Michigan matchup had the most pre-game buzz.  The chart below shows the pre-game buzz for all 4 matchups (it has been indexed with Kentucky-Michigan as 100).

EliteEight

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014

Sweet 16 Recap: Nothing Compares to Louisville-Kentucky

As part of the Goizeuta Bracket Buzz contest, we were tasked to determine which of the 8 matchups in the Sweet Sixteen would produce the most pre-game “buzz” on Twitter.  Essentially, we looked at the 24 hour period before tip-off, and collected all tweets that mentioned either team or the match-up in that period.  The Kentucky-Louisville matchup had the most pre-game buzz.  The chart below shows the pre-game buzz for all 8 matchups (it has been indexed with Kentucky-Louisville as 100).

SweetSixteenBuzz

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University, 2014

Round of 32 Recap: Twitter Sadness in Kansas, Elation in Kentucky

As part of the Goizeuta Bracket Buzz contest, we were tasked to determine which of the 16 matchups in the Round of 32 would produce the most pre-game “buzz” on Twitter.  Essentially, we looked at the 24 hour period before tip-off, and collected all tweets that mentioned either team or the match-up in that period.  The Kentucky-Wichita State matchup had the most pre-game buzz.  The chart below shows the pre-game buzz for all 16 matchups (it has been indexed with Kentucky-Wichita State as 100).  It is interesting to note that two teams in Kansas (Kansas & Wichita State) lost this weekend, and two teams in Kentucky (Louisville & Kentucky) won.  We were interested to see if this had an impact on all (not just basketball related) Twitter activity in each state.  We compared the average sentiment and volume of tweets for the three previous weekends with the sentiment and volume of tweets this past weekend in each state.  There was a 26.5% increase in the volume of tweets in Kansas this past weekend and a 9.7% increase in the volume of tweets in Kentucky.  The sentiment (the mix of positive, negative, and neutral tweets indexed between 1 and 100) of all tweets in Kansas decreased by 4.5%!  The sentiment in Kentucky increased by 1.9%.

Round 3 Pre Game

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.

Vanderbilt & Florida Best at Converting Talent into NBA Draft Picks: Ranking the SEC

In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school.  We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.

Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the SEC.    The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the SEC (for more details on our methodology, please click here).  Vanderbilt was the leader in the SEC in converting talent into NBA draft picks.  The Commodores were followed by Florida and then traditional power Kentucky.  To all of our friends in Lexington, we realize that Coach Calipari has done an excellent job in producing NBA draft picks.  Our analysis covers the recruiting classes of 2002 to 2011, and thus Calipari only comes in at the tail-end of the sample.  We are trying to look at long-term trends.  It is quite likely that if we only looked at the Calipari era, Kentucky would be on top.

In the period of our study, 14.3% of 3-Star recruits at Vanderbilt were drafted into the NBA (The overall national draft rate for 3-Star recruits during this period was 3%).  The Commodores only had one 5-Star recruit during the time-frame of our study, and that 5-Star recruit was drafted.  Thus, Vandy was able to effectively convert the limited high-level of talent that it recruited, and it was able to transform lower-ranked talent into NBA material at a rate far above the national average.

During the time period of our study, Kentucky and Florida had 32% and 21% of their overall recruits drafted, respectively.  This puts both schools in the top 10 in the country for overall percentage of recruits drafted.  While Kentucky had 72% of their 5-Star recruits drafted (the national average was 51%), they did not do as well with lower-rated recruits as compared to Florida.  Florida had 26% of their 4-Star recruits drafted (the national average was 13%), and also had 3-Star and non-rated recruits drafted during the time period of our study.

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The Best Fan Bases in the Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Our series on the Best Fan Bases in college basketball continues with an examination of the Southeastern Conference (SEC).  The Arkansas Razorbacks are on top, followed by the Kentucky Wildcats and the Florida Gators.  LSU and South Carolina are on the bottom of the rankings.  (Note: For additional information on our methodology, click here)

One possible point of contention is that Arkansas rates higher than perennial power Kentucky.  The key to the separation between the two schools is that while both Arkansas and Kentucky receive outstanding support, Arkansas’ support occurs despite less on-court success (Kentucky averaged 9 more wins per year than Arkansas over the period of the study).  The other possible interpretation is that Kentucky tends to underprice tickets, and may collect less revenue than possible.

LSU and South Carolina are at the bottom of the rankings for the SEC.  In the time period of our study, LSU made the NCAA tournament four times (including a Final Four), but in three of those years they still could never get above 66% in average attendance/capacity.  South Carolina averaged just over 50% in average attendance/capacity in seasons where they had over 20 wins.