Going into the baseball season, there are all sorts of expectations about how teams are going to perform. This summer I thought it might be interesting to track social media across a season. What this means is something of an open question. I have a bunch of ideas but suggestions are welcome.
But the starting point is clear. We open with social media equity rankings of MLB clubs. The basic idea of the social media rankings is that we look at the number of social media followers of each team after statistically controlling for market differences (NY teams should have more followers than San Diego) and for short term changes in winning rates. The idea is to get a measure of each teams’ fan base after controlling for short-term blips in winning and built in advantages due to market size. A fuller description of the methodology may be found here.
Social Media Equity is really a measure of fan engagement or passion (no it’s not a perfect measure). It captures the fact that some teams have larger and more passionate fan bases (again after controlling for market and winning rates) than others. In this case the assumption is that engagement and passion are strongly correlated with social media community size. Over the years we have looked at lots of social media metrics and my feeling, at least, is that this most basic of measures is probably the best one.
When we last reported our Social Media Equity ratings the winners were the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs Phillies and Cardinals. The teams that struggled were the White Sox, Angels, A’s, Mets and Rays. This was 2014. Last summer was kind of a lost summer for the blog.
But enough background… The 2016 pre-season social equity rankings feature a top five of the Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Giants. A lot of similarities from 2014, with the big change being the Blue Jays at the top of the rankings. One quick observation (we have all summer for more) is that teams with “bigger” geographic regions like the Blue Jays (Canada?), Braves (the American South) and the Red Sox (New England) do well in this measure of brand equity since constraints like stadium capacity don’t play a role.
At the bottom of the rankings it’s the Marlins, Angels, Mariners, A’s and Nationals. Again a good deal of overlap from earlier. Maybe the key shared factor at the bottom is tough local competition. The Angels struggle against the Dodgers, the A’s play second fiddle in the bay area and the Marlins lose out to the beach.
The table below provides the complete rankings and a measure of trend. The trend shows the relative growth in followers from 2015 to the start of the 2016 season (again after controlling for factors such as winning rates). The Cubbies are up and comers! While the Mariners are fading.
|Team||Social Media Equity Rank||Trend Rank|
More to come….