Ranking Sports Cities: Nashville & New Orleans Are the Best “Two-Sport” Towns

There are ten cities on our list with teams in two pro leagues.  These cities include Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Nashville, New Orleans, Oakland, Seattle and San Diego.  While our previous analysis of one team towns was driven by a single team’s results, we now shift to cities with multiple franchises.

#1 Nashville

We have to admit, this was a bit of a surprise.  Not because of anything negative about Nashville itself, but because both Nashville teams are relative newcomers.  Our data suggest that Nashville has a population that will support teams even without having generations of history. This is somewhat unusual and suggests that Nashville should be considered as a candidate for future expansion clubs.

When Mike thinks of the Titans his mind goes back to Bum Phillips and Earl Campbell (Manish thinks of the Music City Miracle).  But despite Mike’s aging memory, the numbers suggest that the Titans have been able to develop a strong following in a relatively short time.  The Titans rank 10th in terms of NFL fan equity.  According to ESPN, Tennessee has sold out all tickets for the last several years.  Notably, these sell-outs continue whether the team goes 10-6 or 6-10.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Nashville Predators have sold at least 94% of available tickets.  This is impressive attendance considering the size of the market and ticket prices.  The Nashville market contains only 1.7 million people but Predators are able to charge ticket prices in excess of teams in larger markets.  The Predators rank 11th in our fan equity ranking and 15th in our social media ranking.

#2 New Orleans

New Orleans was one of the markets that enthusiastically embraced some of our earlier studies, so New Orleans finishing number two in our 2-sport city rankings was not a surprise.  Well, maybe it was a little bit of a surprise because we are old enough to remember the “Aints.”

New Orleans provides amazing support to the Saints.  In our fan equity rankings the Saints finished 4th in the NFL.  This placed the Saints ahead of more “prominent” teams like the Giants or the Bears.  The key is that our rankings account for population and variation in winning percent.  The results therefore mean that when you control for these factors, Saints fans are truly exceptional.

The Pelicans also have a solid fan base.  The Pelicans finished 16th in terms of fan equity and 7th in social media equity.

#3 Baltimore

We now turn to the top two-professional team markets.  At #3 we have the tradition rich Baltimore metro area.

The Orioles rank a solid 14th in our fan equity rankings of MLB.  This is impressive since up until the past two seasons, the Orioles struggled to compete in the AL East.  It is also impressive since some of the Orioles support was likely lost to the Nationals.  The Orioles also ranked 14th in our social media equity ranking.  The key to the Orioles success in the rankings?  If we had to guess we would say it is tradition. Frank Robinson, Jim Palmer, Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken etc… Also students have told Professor Lewis that he looks like Ripken.

The Ravens actually score bit better in our rankings with a 8th place fan equity and a 9th place social equity ranking.  Again, this is no surprise given the success of the Ravens franchise.  It is interesting, however, that each team’s equity seems to come from a different era.  While the Orioles glory days were probably from the late 60s to the early 90s, the Ravens equity has been built on recent success and stars.

#4 Buffalo

Just as we find that teams in warm markets seem to struggle to build followings, teams in colder climates seem to outperform their competition.  So it is no surprise that Buffalo (where Manish will be spending Thanksgiving) is in the top half of two team cities.

For the respective teams, the Bills finish 24th in fan equity and 14th is social media equity.  The Sabers finish 16th in the NHL fan equity rankings.

#5 Indianapolis

The Pacers and the Colts fan bases combine to give Indiana/Indianapolis a rank right in the middle of the list.  Despite their recent success, the Pacers rank near the bottom of the NBA with a fan equity ranking of 23rd.  In contrast, the Colts have a very solid fan equity ranking of 6th.  It will be interesting to see if the Colts can maintain this performance as a quarterback now playing in Denver becomes a memory.

#6 Seattle

Seattle ranks 6th on the list.  The Seahawks rank 23rd in the NFL in both fan equity and social media equity. The Mariners do a bit better with a fan equity ranking of 20th in MLB and a social media rank of 12th.

#7 Cincinnati

At number seven on our list of cities with two professional teams we have the home of the Bengals and Reds.  Even prior to running the numbers, this is about what we would have expected.  Our expectations were that the Reds had a strong fan base while the Bengals were fairly weak.  In terms of population Cincinnati is the 28th largest market in the US and the median income rank is #55.

The Bengals’ fan base is relatively weak.  The team usually ranks below average in terms of attendance and finished dead last in 2011.  The Bengals also do not have a great deal of pricing power as the average price of a Bengals’ ticket is well below the league average ($68.96 versus $81.54 league average in 2013).  The end result of this data is that the Bengals ranked 19th in our fan equity rankings.  The team scored even worse in social media with a ranking of 26.

The Reds do indeed have a stronger fan base.  In terms of fan equity the Reds ranked 11th in MLB and the social media rank was a strong 13th.  The Reds also price well below the MLB average ($21.35 versus $27.48 league average) but the team ranks right in the middle of the pack with attendance of more than 2.2 million in each of the last three years.

#8 San Diego

San Diego ranks 8th on our list of “2 sport” cities.  As we have noted, it seems that the better the weather, the more “fair-weather” the fans.  In terms of demographics, San Diego is a respectable market with a population of about 3.2 million (17th largest market) and the 27th highest median income.  But, fan support is questionable.  Strangely, especially for California, the NFL Chargers perform a bit better on our fan indexes than the Padres.

Last year the Chargers ranked 28th in attendance and only sold 84% of capacity.  In our fan equity rankings, the Chargers were ranked 11th.  The social media rank was 15th.  These are respectable numbers.  The reason that the Chargers are fairly highly ranked is that while attendance is low the team is able to charge relatively high prices.  This season, the Chargers average ticket price is actually higher than NFL stalwarts such as Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

The Padres ranked 20th in attendance this past season and 21st in 2012.  The Padres showing is particularly bad because the team’s average ticket price is the lowest in the league.  In terms of fan equity, the Padres ranked 19th in MLB.  The team’s social media rank was also 19th.

#9 Kansas City

Kansas City is our 9th ranked “Two Sport” town.  While Kansas City has been a poster child for the issue of the competitive balance between big and small markets, our analyses suggest that even after controlling for population and income differences that Kansas City is a relatively poor sports market.

This past season the Royals ranked 26th in terms of attendance and only sold 57% of capacity despite being in the hunt for a playoff spot.  And given that Royals prices are well below the league average, it is hard to make the case that price is the factor that is limiting support.  In terms of fan equity the Royals ranked 15th in MLB.

Chiefs are more of a middle of the road team in terms of attendance.  The Chiefs ranked 8th in terms of attendance in 2011 and 16th in 2012.  However, while the Chiefs raw attendance is higher many of their competitor’s attendance figures are limited by capacity constraints.  In 2012, KC attendance was just 89% of capacity.  And like the Royals, the Chiefs also price well below the league average.  In terms of fan equity, the Chiefs ranked 21st in the NFL.

#10 Oakland

At the bottom of the list we have the city of Oakland.  Oakland has two storied franchises in the A’s and the Raiders.  But despite the previous success of these teams they both rank near the bottom of their respective leagues.  The A’s finish 26th in terms of fan equity and 28th in social media equity in our MLB results.  The Raiders finish dead last in fan equity in the NFL.

Interestingly, the Raiders finish 10th in the social media ranking of NFL teams.  This is an important finding because it suggests that the Raiders may enjoy an above average following nationally while they struggle locally.  This means that the Raiders are likely to benefit from relocating.  Of course, this has been tried in the past, but perhaps the key is to move to a place where the team doesn’t compete with the weather.  How about the Portland Raiders?

To some degree Oakland’s finish at the bottom is not surprising.  While both teams have tremendous histories of success, this success mainly occurred in the 70s and 80s.  The Oakland teams may be suffering from fans being disappointed that the teams have fallen a long ways.  This type of “reference” effect is critical because the primary segment of affluent fans is likely to be in their 40s and 50s.

We have also noted in previous posts that there does seem to be a systematic weakness that happens in markets located in California, Florida and other “good” weather cities.  For whatever reason fans in these regions tend not to show the support that fans in colder climates tend to exhibit.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

NFL Fan Equity: Maybe the Cowboys are America’s Team?

Note: We have been getting a lot of questions about our study.  Here are the first and second follow-ups to our study.  For an alternative fan ranking using “Social Media Equity,” click here.

The NFL is America’s favorite professional sports league, but which of its teams has the most loyal and supportive fan base?  This is not a straightforward question.  A ranking based on attendance would be skewed toward teams that play in more populated metropolitan areas, and a ranking based on profitability or revenues would be biased in favor of teams that are currently enjoying more on-field success.

In our series of fan base analyses across leagues, we adjust for these complicating factors using a revenue premium model of fan equity.  The key idea is that we look at team box office revenues relative to team on-field success, market population, stadium capacity, median income and other factors.  The first step in our procedure involves the creation of a statistical model that predicts box office revenue as a function of the aforementioned variables.  We then compare actual revenues to the revenues predicted by the model.  Teams with relatively stronger fan support will have revenues that exceed the predicted values, and teams that under perform have relatively less supportive fan bases. We provide more details on the method here and here.

The top fan base was the Dallas Cowboys.  Professor Lewis grew up a Steelers fan in the 1970s so this was a bit of a painful result.  Professor Tripathi grew up as a Redskins fan, and is terribly disturbed by the results of the study.  What are keys to the Cowboys’ ability to create a passionate and supportive fan base?  We think it’s a long legacy of success, a football mad Texas culture and a state of the art stadium.  Over the last three seasons (the time period used to calculate fan equity) the Cowboys have played sub .500 football but generated above capacity attendance (at least according to ESPN).

In positions two and three we have the New England Patriots and the New York Jets.  New England has an all-around strong fan base, while the Jets are somewhat similar to the Cowboys in that they draw consistently well, regardless of the on-field product.  In fourth and fifth place we have the New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants.  The Saints are a more recent success story, but the team’s new success combined with limited professional sports options in New Orleans has created a very strong fan base.  Two New York teams in the top five is an interesting result when viewed in relation to our college football fan base analyses.  New York is (no surprise here) a pro sports town.  As an aside, we will be interested to see how much value the Big Ten gains from acquiring a foothold in the NYC market starting in 2014.

At the more unfortunate end of the scale we have a bottom five of Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Atlanta and Oakland.  Detroit, of course, suffers from a relative lack of on-field success and a struggling local economy.  But we should note that our method does explicitly control for these factors.  It may well be a matter of the Wolverines & Spartans winning the battle for fans against the Lions.  Similarly, teams like Atlanta and Tampa Bay may suffer from being located in SEC territory.

We will continue this discussion next week so please check back.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.