Manziel’s Draft Night Twitter Takeover

There was speculation last night during the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft that if Johnny Manziel was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys, the Twitterverse would “explode”.  While the Cowboys passed on Johnny Football, Manziel was still the king of Twitter last night.  We used Topsy Pro to collect all tweets in the United States between 8pm EDT and midnight last night.  In that collection of tweets, we counted up all of the tweets that included the term “Manziel”.  This accounted for 5.2% of all of the tweets in the US.  We performed a similar analysis for all tweets that were geo-coded as originating from Texas.  “Manziel” was included in 9.6% of all tweets in Texas!

Manziel Draft Night Final

The graph above plots the overall volume of tweets in the United States and tweets that included “Manziel”.  It is interesting to note that as the draft progressed and Manziel was still available for the Cowboys, the Manziel tweets started to rise, followed by a drop-off when the Cowboys drafted Zach Martin.  The largest spike in Twitter activity in the US last night was when Cleveland finally drafted Manziel.

Manish Tripathi & Mike Lewis, Emory University 2014.

2011-2013 NFL Draft Performance by the Non-BCS Conferences FBS: Nevada, Boise State, and Idaho Excel, Notre Dame Disappoints

We have spent the last few days examining the performance of BCS Conferences schools in the 2013 NFL Draft with respect to converting high school talent into NFL draft picks (SEC, Big 10, ACC, PAC 12, Big 12, & Big East).   In this study, we consider the talent conversion ability of Non-BCS Conferences schools over the last three NFL drafts.  We find that the University of Nevada did the best job of converting high school talent into draft picks.  It should be noted that Notre Dame finished near the bottom of the list of Non-BCS schools.  While the Fighting Irish produced only one more pick than Boise State and two more than Nevada, their recruiting classes were better by leaps and bounds.

The FCS schools are excluded from this study because there is very limited recruiting data available.  However, Appalachian State produced six draft picks in the 2011-2013 NFL drafts!  It is not surprising that Appalachian State is moving to the FBS.

(*ARP refers to the average recruiting points as given by Rivals.com for recruiting classes represented in the 2011-2013 NFL Drafts)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 7: Rutgers & UConn Beasts of the Big East!

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We conclude our team-level discussion with an analysis of the Big East.

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

(Please note that “Winners” are determined by the top quartile of scores, and “Losers” are the bottom quartile)

Winners: Connecticut and Rutgers are not only the big winners of the NFL Draft in the Big East, they were across the country two of the best schools for converting talent into 2013 NFL picks.  UConn produced five draft picks using talent that on average ranked outside of the top 75 during the relevant recruiting period. Rutgers had seven picks using talent that averaged just inside the top 50!  This could mean that the coaching staffs at Rutgers and UConn did a great job developing players and/or Edsall and Schiano had an eye for finding diamonds in the rough.

Middle of the Pack: In other conferences, Syracuse and USF could have been in the top quartile and thus “Winners”, because both schools produced three draft picks using talent on average outside the top 45.

Losers: Pittsburgh, Louisville and Temple all had no draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft.  Pittsburgh is the most disappointing of these schools, since they averaged talent inside the top 40 during the relevant recruiting period.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 6: ISU, K-State, & TCU on Top of Big 12!

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the Big 12.

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

(Please note that “Winners” are determined by the top quartile of scores, and “Losers” are the bottom quartile)

Winners: Iowa State had the worst average recruited talent during the relevant time period, but still managed to produce more picks in this draft than Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.   In Manhattan, they managed to produce three draft picks in this draft despite having an average class ranking just outside of the top 60 during the relevant recruiting period.

Middle of the Pack: While Oklahoma and Texas are both in the “Middle of the Pack,” it should be noted that they represent the two extremes of this segment.  Both schools averaged top 10 recruiting classes, but Oklahoma produced six draft picks, while Texas only produced three.

Losers: Texas Tech had no draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft, however Oklahoma State’s performance seems to be most alarming.  Despite having averaged a recruiting class just outside the top 30, they managed to produce only one draft pick.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 5: Vanderbilt & South Carolina Are Best in SEC!

For our latest posts and updates, follow @sportsmktprof

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the SEC.

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.   For example, our previous result of Kentucky having a very high conversion rate only considered elite recruits, and was for a six year period of drafts before the 2013 NFL Draft.  This study is for all rated recruit conversion, and is just for this one draft.

Winners: While Georgia and LSU had 8 and 9 draft picks respectively, they also averaged top 10 recruiting classes over the relevant time period.  South Carolina had 7 picks with talent that on average was just inside the top 20!  Vanderbilt by FAR had the worst rated incoming talent during this period, but they still doubled up Auburn in terms of their number of draft picks!

Middle of the Pack: It may surprise many to see Alabama and Florida listed in the “Middle of the Pack”.  After all, these schools produced 17 picks between the two of them.  Remember, we are measuring the ability of schools to convert their incoming talent into draft picks.  These schools had amazing recruiting classes every year.  Given such a high level of talent, we would have expected at least one or two more picks per school to put them in the “Winners” category.

Losers: Auburn and Ole Miss are the two biggest SEC losers this year in the draft.  Auburn averaged a top 15 recruiting class, but only produced one pick.  Ole Miss averaged a top 25 class, and had no picks at all.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 4: Tar Heels & Seminoles On Top of ACC!

For our latest posts and updates, follow @sportsmktprof

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the ACC.

To reiterate from our previous posts, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

Winners: With 11 picks in the draft, the Seminoles did a good job of converting top talent (they averaged a top ten ranked recruiting class over the relevant period for the 2013 draft).  The Tar Heels were the surprising winners of this draft.  North Carolina had 5 picks in the draft, and did not average a top 20 recruiting class over the corresponding time period!  Thus Carolina was very successful at converting high school talent into picks.

Middle of the Pack: Clemson could almost be placed in the “winner” column.  However, they had fewer draft picks than North Carolina, but on average better rated recruiting classes.  Duke, Wake Forest, and Virginia only had one pick each, but they also had the lowest rated incoming talent in the ACC.

Losers: Miami attracted a lot of talent, but only produced 2 draft picks.  The Terrapins had far superior talent recruited to College Park than Duke, Wake Forest, or Virginia, but they produced the same number of draft picks, one.  Boston College and Georgia Tech both had no picks despite averaging top 50 classes over the relevant time period.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 3: ILL-INI and Badgers in the Big 10

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the Big Ten.  (Our next conference will be the ACC, follow us @sportsmktprof for updates)

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.  As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive.  That said, the 2013 draft does produce results that are largely consistent with our multiyear statistical study of recruit conversion.

Winners: The winners of the 2013 draft include Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State.  This is an interesting mix of schools in that it includes two teams that tend to struggle on the field (but dammit Zook could identify talent!) and two teams that are often near the top of the Big Ten standings.  Wisconsin in particular seems to excel at turning out pros.

Middle of the Pack: The next group includes several historical powers.  Ohio State is an interesting case.  While the Buckeyes went undefeated, they actually had one less draft pick than Illinois (did we mention that Zook could identify talent)..

Losers: The “losers” category also included an interesting mix of schools.  Perennial power Michigan is in this category, but we also see schools that tend to recruit at a lower level such as Indiana.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Pt 2: The Pacific Northwest Dominates the PAC-12

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We begin our team-level discussion with an analysis of the PAC-12.  (Our next conference will be the Big Ten, follow us @sportsmktprof for updates)

To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are examining how many picks were produced by each school relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft.

Winners: While Oregon State (2 Picks) and Washington State (1 Pick) produced fewer picks than UCLA (4 Picks) or USC (4 Picks), they also had far lower ranked recruiting classes during the relevant period.  Thus, teams like Oregon State were better at converting what they started with into NFL draft material.  Oregon produced 5 draft picks, even though their recruiting classes on average were ranked lower than UCLA and USC.

Middle of the Pack: Stanford had 3 picks in the draft, but also had good recruiting classes from the Harbaugh years on the Farm.  Similarly, UCLA had 4 picks, but all of its recruiting classes were in the top 15.

Losers: Arizona State and Arizona State both averaged top 50 recruiting classes, but neither school had a draft pick in the 2013 draft.  Washington also averaged a top 50 recruiting class, but only had one pick.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

2013 NFL Draft Recap Part 1: The Big East’s Last Hurrah?

The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks.  We will provide team-by-team conference level analyses later in the week (follow us @sportsmktprof for updates).  Today, we start with a conference ranking:

Our methodology for this ranking is quite straightforward.  We examine the average rating points (typically a function of the number of rated high school recruits in a class) by conference over the relevant recruiting periods for the 2013 NFL Draft.  It should be noted that our analysis is only for the 2013 Draft, and that there can be large fluctuations over time, especially on a team-by-team level.  Our previous study was for the six year period before this draft, and it only considered conversion rates for four-star and five star recruits.

Given the tremendous number of picks from the SEC, it is no surprise that the SEC dominated the NFL Draft in terms of converting its high school talent into NFL Draft picks.  What is surprising, however, is the performance of the Big East.  Even though the Big East had fewer picks than the ACC or Pac-12, it ranked higher because of its “input quality”.  Teams in the Big East managed to produce 2013 NFL draft picks with weaker high school talent on average.

By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.

Best & Worst Colleges for Converting Elite Recruits into NFL Draft Picks

 

As a follow-up to our previous post, we would like to provide a more complete view of the best and worst colleges based on converting elite recruits into NFL Draft picks (number of draft picks divided by the number of four and five star recruits).  This study considers the last six NFL drafts, and examines the top sixty schools in terms of relevant recruiting cycles over the past twelve years.  We exclude schools that have not produced a single draft pick in the 2007-2012 period or that have less than four elite recruits over the relevant recruiting cycles.

Since there have been a considerable number of inquiries, it should be noted that the University of Alabama finished in the middle of the pack.  While the table above is produced from a rather straight-forward statistical analysis (descriptive statistics for each school), we would like to stress that our main results are derived from multiple linear regression models.  The key result is the significant negative relationship between the number of four-star prospects and the draft conversion rate of high ranked prospect. It is also worth noting that while we focused on the ratio of draft picks to elite recruits we also conducted a number of other analyses that focused on alternative measures of draft success such as the number of Day 1 or First round picks per elite recruit.  Our key finding was replicated across the various models.

By  Dr. Mike Lewis & Dr. Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013

Methodology for the study explained here.