Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.
The discussion of the conferences with highest fan equity begins and ends with the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Six of the top twelve overall college football teams in our rankings are from the SEC. For the second straight year, UGA tops our ranking of SEC college football fan equity. [For more on the overall study and methodology, please click here]
When we examine the SEC Fan Equity rankings from last year, the top 5 teams are the same except for Arkansas replacing Texas A&M. The teams near the bottom are also relatively unchanged. For those who are wondering why Georgia is ahead of Alabama, our explanation from last year still applies:
“The University of Georgia has the number one ranked football fan base in the SEC according to our study. It should be pointed out that this study covers a ten year period, and that the top four ranked schools in the SEC are also among the top ranked football fan bases in the country. So, what separates Georgia from Alabama? Over the period of our study, both Georgia and Alabama averaged between 9 and 10 wins a season. However, Georgia averaged 12% more in revenues per year than Alabama. Alabama also had a couple of years in the beginning of our sample (2002 & 2004) where the home games were not all filled to capacity. Thus, over the period of our study, when we control for team performance and other institutional factors, the Georgia fan base is just a bit more loyal and devoted.”
So why did Arkansas move up the rankings? We believe that this could in part be due to enthusiasm resulting from the hiring of Coach Bielema. Revenues were up for the Razorbacks last year and attendance remained relatively unchanged, despite winning less than the previous year.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.
Last weekend, Georgia beat LSU in a highly entertaining, closely contested football game. After the game, fans were undoubtedly sad in Baton Rouge and elated in Athens. These emotions were manifested through the tweeting activity of fans in both cities. Using data from Topsy Pro, we were able to collect football-related tweets originating from Athens and Baton Rouge after the game. There were almost twice as many tweets originating from Athens, and the ratio of positive to negative tweets was 9:1 in Athens, whereas the ratio was 1:9 in Baton Rouge. As transplants who have lived in Atlanta for a few years now, we can attest to the overwhelming passion towards SEC football in the South. Recently, we used data from Twitter to describe the emotions of NFL football fan bases during the 2012 regular season. We decided that performing a similar analysis on the SEC football fan bases would be an interesting study. We decided to empirically determine which SEC football fan bases really “live & die” by the performance of their teams.
The methodology for our study was straightforward. We considered all of the regular season games from 2012 and the first five weeks of the 2013 season. For each game, we recorded who won the game, and we collected football-related tweets from all of the SEC college towns for one, two, and three days after the game. It would be reasonable to ask why we didn’t collect tweets from Atlanta for a UGA game or from all of Kentucky for a UK game. We were trying to isolate tweets primarily from fans of the SEC team, and we believe that the college town is the best proxy for mainly fans of the college. Atlanta is full of UGA fans, but there are also Alabama fans, Auburn fans, Florida fans, and pretty much fans of all SEC teams. We wanted reactions of UGA fans to the UGA games, not the reactions of Auburn fans to the UGA games. By football-related tweets, we mean tweets that mentioned any words that were commonly related to the particular college football team. The tweets were coded as positive, negative, or neutral. We were able to determine the “sentiment” of the collection of tweets as a rough index (1-100) of the ratio of positive to negative tweets.
Thus after each game, we were able to calculate the sentiment of the fan base. We determined on average how positive a fan base was after a win, and how negative they were after a loss. To understand the “volatility” of a fan base, we looked at the delta between the average sentiment after a win and the average sentiment after a loss. In other words, how big is the difference in a fan base’s “high” after a win and “low” after a loss. We believe that this metric best captures “living & dying” by the performance of your team. After computing this metric for each fan base, we determined that LSU has the most “volatile” fans in the SEC.
The chart on the left gives the full rankings for the SEC. It should be noted that these rankings were robust to whether we looked at how fans felt one, two, or three days after a game. We believe that volatility is in part driven by 1) the expectations of the fan base and 2) the expressiveness of the fan base. The top three schools in our rankings seem to get to the top for different reasons. The volatility of LSU & UGA fans is driven more by extreme negativity after losses, whereas the volatility of Ole Miss fans is a function of high levels of happiness after wins. This could, of course, in part be due to expectations. UGA & LSU fans may have higher expectations than Ole Miss fans. An examination of the data reveals that LSU fans had an extremely negative reaction to the Alabama loss last year and the Georgia loss this year. These fans even had an overall negative reaction to a close WIN over Auburn last year! UGA fans spewed a lot of vitriol on Twitter after the loss to Clemson this year. Ole Miss fans, on the other hand, did not have overly negative reactions to losses, and were very positive after wins (e.g. the win over Texas this year). It is interesting to note that the Alabama fan base is at the bottom of the volatility list. Alabama only lost one game during the period of this study (a good reason for publishing this list again next year when we have more data). But, even after wins, the Alabama fan base is not very positive on Twitter. There are several tweets that are critical about the margin of victory. If Alabama does ever go on some type of losing streak in the future (as unlikely as that seems), it will be fascinating to observe the reaction on Twitter.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.
We are presenting a series ranking the “best” fan bases in college football. The study uses data from the past ten years and the rankings are based on Revenue Premium Brand Equity. For more information on the analysis/methodology, please click here.
As a rule, when we begin any analysis we start with no prior expectations about the results. We let theory and numbers guide our findings. However, living in the South, it is hard not to witness the extreme passion and loyalty of SEC fans on a daily basis. The SEC football season is year-round (season, recruiting, spring football). Therefore, we were not surprised when the SEC was the top rated conference in our college football Revenue Premium Brand Equity rankings. Given the passion of SEC fans, we expect that our SEC conference rankings will engender a lot of “constructive discussion”.
The University of Georgia has the number one ranked football fan base in the SEC according to our study. It should be pointed out that this study covers a ten year period, and that the top four ranked schools in the SEC are also among the top ranked football fan bases in the country. So, what separates Georgia from Alabama? Over the period of our study, both Georgia and Alabama averaged between 9 and 10 wins a season. However, Georgia averaged 12% more in revenues per year than Alabama. Alabama also had a couple of years in the beginning of our sample (2002 & 2004) where the home games were not all filled to capacity. Thus, over the period of our study, when we control for team performance and other institutional factors, the Georgia fan base is just a bit more loyal and devoted.
Auburn University finished in third place, being just edged out by its friendly neighbor, Alabama. The Crimson Tide generated slightly more revenue per year on average than the Tigers, despite averaging almost the identical number of wins. Also, while Alabama’s revenues are growing, Auburn has been facing a decline. The University of Florida finished fourth in our study. The Gators actually average 6.9% more revenue per year than Auburn, however they also averaged 0.5 more wins per season during the period of our study. Remember, our conjecture is that it is easier for a fan to shell out for a team when the team is winning games, thus we control for team performance.
Vanderbilt is ranked 11th in our study. We would like to point out that the last couple of years have been positive for the Commodores, and although lagged, the revenues for the football program seem to be improving. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are at the bottom of the study of SEC fan bases. During the period of our study, Ole Miss and Mississippi State actually averaged more wins per season than Vanderbilt. However, Ole Miss generated roughly the same amount of revenue as Vandy, and Mississippi State generated 20% less.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.
Over the next week or so, we will be publishing analyses of the “best” fan bases in college football. Our plan is to go conference by conference, and talk about which teams have the most loyal fans. Our approach is data and statistically driven, as we will be looking at how fans support their teams after controlling for how well the team performs. The series will conclude with an overall ranking of teams.
Before we get to the team rankings we wanted to start with an analysis of conferences. Beyond regional pride, our conference rankings are related to the topic of conference realignment. Conferences are the sum of their parts with some added bonus due to the synergies the overall group creates. Our fan equity analyses therefore provide a means for anticipating how new or changed conferences will compare with each other.
For those that have previously seen our other brand equity analyses, we should note that our conference-level analysis takes a slightly different approach. For the fan analyses, we build a statistical model that predicts team revenues as a function of metrics related to team performance such as winning percentage and bowl participation. We then compare actual revenues to what is predicted based purely on team performance (and other factors such as number of students, capacity, etc…). Click here for an explanation of why we use this “revenue premium” approach to brand equity measurement.
For the conference analysis, we take a similar, but more financially oriented approach. This analysis also begins with a statistical model of team revenues, but now the explanatory variables primarily involve team expenditures. Team-level brand equity is then taken as the difference between actual revenues and revenues predicted based on expenditures. The logic of this approach is that teams with more powerful brands should be able to more efficiently increase revenues. As an example, imagine a comparison between the University of Notre Dame and perhaps Rutgers. If these teams spent the same amount in a given year, we would still expect Notre Dame to have significantly greater revenues simply because ND has such a large and loyal following.
We rely on this ROI (Return on Investment) oriented measure for the conference ranking because we have a significant interest in conference realignment. In this era of realignment, it seems obvious that conference membership decisions are almost entirely driven by financial considerations. In other words, while we feel that fan support should be measured relative to team performance, when it comes to conferences we believe that schools should be evaluated based on ROI.
Finally on to the rankings…
In an altogether unsurprising result, the SEC is ranked number one, followed by the Big Ten in the second position. The SEC ranking is notable in that while we all know that the SEC has dominated on the field; our results also suggest that the conference schools are extremely efficient in translating the intensity of fans into dollars. On the realignment front, it seems certain that Missouri and Texas A&M were largely driven by the financial attractiveness of the conference. It remains to be seen if these schools have traded cash for also-ran status.
In second place, we have the Big Ten Conference. The Big Ten is in many ways a leader in the space, as they have been successful in creating a network that leverages the appeal of its members. The Big Ten has also been notable in its efforts to attract teams that expand the conference’s access to media markets.
In a distant third place we have the Big 12. The Big 12 is interesting in that it has, and had, several very well-known brands such as Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Of course, the Big 12 has also been the major conference that has seen the most attrition as Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas A&M have all moved to seemingly greener pastures. Despite this attrition, the conference does well in our rankings, and out-performs two of the other Big 5 conferences. The big question for the Big 12 is whether it will be sustainable in the long-term. The Big 12 has two key weaknesses. First, it’s unclear if it covers enough major markets to successfully develop a media strategy that will allow the conference schools to be competitive with other better-located conferences. The second issue is that the Big 12 is very top heavy. Texas is the obvious (financial) jewel of the league. Will Texas share or will the Longhorns go their own way?
In fourth place, we have the PAC 12. The PAC 12 is promising case in that it seems to be well positioned for the future. In terms of teams, it contains both historical powers like USC and up and coming teams like Oregon. The conference also covers major media markets, but its west coast time zone may be a limitation.
Perhaps the biggest surprise in our analysis was that the new American Athletic Conference (AAC) ranked higher than the ACC. This is a non-intuitive finding as we expected that historically successful programs such as Florida State and Miami would lead the ACC past an AAC led by Louisville and Cincinnati. The reason for this result is actually quite simple. The ACC schools have invested in football at about the same level as the Big 12 and PAC 12 schools, but with lower resulting revenues.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University, 2013.
In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school. We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.
Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the SEC. The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the SEC (for more details on our methodology, please click here). Vanderbilt was the leader in the SEC in converting talent into NBA draft picks. The Commodores were followed by Florida and then traditional power Kentucky. To all of our friends in Lexington, we realize that Coach Calipari has done an excellent job in producing NBA draft picks. Our analysis covers the recruiting classes of 2002 to 2011, and thus Calipari only comes in at the tail-end of the sample. We are trying to look at long-term trends. It is quite likely that if we only looked at the Calipari era, Kentucky would be on top.
In the period of our study, 14.3% of 3-Star recruits at Vanderbilt were drafted into the NBA (The overall national draft rate for 3-Star recruits during this period was 3%). The Commodores only had one 5-Star recruit during the time-frame of our study, and that 5-Star recruit was drafted. Thus, Vandy was able to effectively convert the limited high-level of talent that it recruited, and it was able to transform lower-ranked talent into NBA material at a rate far above the national average.
During the time period of our study, Kentucky and Florida had 32% and 21% of their overall recruits drafted, respectively. This puts both schools in the top 10 in the country for overall percentage of recruits drafted. While Kentucky had 72% of their 5-Star recruits drafted (the national average was 51%), they did not do as well with lower-rated recruits as compared to Florida. Florida had 26% of their 4-Star recruits drafted (the national average was 13%), and also had 3-Star and non-rated recruits drafted during the time period of our study.
Our series on the Best Fan Bases in college basketball continues with an examination of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The Arkansas Razorbacks are on top, followed by the Kentucky Wildcats and the Florida Gators. LSU and South Carolina are on the bottom of the rankings. (Note: For additional information on our methodology, click here)
One possible point of contention is that Arkansas rates higher than perennial power Kentucky. The key to the separation between the two schools is that while both Arkansas and Kentucky receive outstanding support, Arkansas’ support occurs despite less on-court success (Kentucky averaged 9 more wins per year than Arkansas over the period of the study). The other possible interpretation is that Kentucky tends to underprice tickets, and may collect less revenue than possible.
LSU and South Carolina are at the bottom of the rankings for the SEC. In the time period of our study, LSU made the NCAA tournament four times (including a Final Four), but in three of those years they still could never get above 66% in average attendance/capacity. South Carolina averaged just over 50% in average attendance/capacity in seasons where they had over 20 wins.
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The 2013 NFL Draft has concluded, and we would like to offer our thoughts on the ability of conferences and schools to turn high school talent into NFL Draft Picks. We continue our team-level discussion with an analysis of the SEC.
To reiterate from our previous post, this is only an analysis of the 2013 NFL Draft. We are examining how many picks were produced by each school, relative to their recruiting classes over the relevant corresponding period for the 2013 Draft. As with any analysis based on essentially a single data point it’s important to remember that these results are more anecdotal than conclusive. For example, our previous result of Kentucky having a very high conversion rate only considered elite recruits, and was for a six year period of drafts before the 2013 NFL Draft. This study is for all rated recruit conversion, and is just for this one draft.
Winners: While Georgia and LSU had 8 and 9 draft picks respectively, they also averaged top 10 recruiting classes over the relevant time period. South Carolina had 7 picks with talent that on average was just inside the top 20! Vanderbilt by FAR had the worst rated incoming talent during this period, but they still doubled up Auburn in terms of their number of draft picks!
Middle of the Pack: It may surprise many to see Alabama and Florida listed in the “Middle of the Pack”. After all, these schools produced 17 picks between the two of them. Remember, we are measuring the ability of schools to convert their incoming talent into draft picks. These schools had amazing recruiting classes every year. Given such a high level of talent, we would have expected at least one or two more picks per school to put them in the “Winners” category.
Losers: Auburn and Ole Miss are the two biggest SEC losers this year in the draft. Auburn averaged a top 15 recruiting class, but only produced one pick. Ole Miss averaged a top 25 class, and had no picks at all.
By Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013
Methodology for the study explained here.