NFL Fan and Brand Report 2018

Each year, I do a quantitative analysis of NFL fandom.  The analysis is grounded in economic and marketing theory, and uses statistical tools to shed light on the question of which teams have the most loyal or “best” fans.

The fundamental question that guides the analysis is simple – Who has the best fans in the NFL?  For the business folks maybe we say this as – What are the best brands in the NFL? These are simple questions without simple answers.  First, we have to decide what we mean by “best”.  What makes for a great fan or brand?  Fans that show up even when the team is losing?  Fans that are willing to pay the highest prices?  Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?

Even after we agree on the question, answering it is also a challenge.  How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium?  Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries?  How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Green Bay?

My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here).  The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term changes in winning and losing.

Similar to last year, I use three measures of fan engagement: Fan Equity, Social Equity and Road Equity.  Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet). Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s community (support exhibited by joining social media communities).  Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance.   These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.

To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest possible method.  A simple average across the three metrics.  (similar analyses are available for the NBA and MLB).  The rankings are based on multiple years of data, use multiple performance measures and sophisticated statistical techniques.  But nothing is perfect and I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss some of the issues and controversies surrounding the NFL.

Its an understatement, but it’s been a tumultuous last few years for the NFL.  Concussions, anthem protests and domestic abuse scandals have all “complicated” fan’s relationships with teams.  The analytics I present use historical data to provide a current snapshot of fan interest.  The analytics provide insight into the “fandom” that has been built over decades and, often, over multiple generations.  So, what is the impact of the current controversies?  Its hard (impossible) to say.

The problem is that while we can measure current fandom with snapshots of spending and social media behavior, factors such as the anthem protests or the concussion lawsuits may play out over years or decades.  These types of issues might have an immediate impact on television ratings but the salient question is how will they influence long-term preference levels.

There may be “signals” in the data such as changes in TV ratings buts it’s tough to tell if these are blips or trends.  In terms of ratings, there is no shortage of theories – controversies, retirements, presidential elections, too many games, too many entertainment options etc…  The existence of so many theories means that an analytics based approach is going to be tough (impossible).  This is especially true because while fandom can dissipate faster than its built, fan loyalty and passion is more likely to fade over years rather than disappear over weeks.

My conjecture is that concussions and the anthem protests are very significant problems for teams.  The issues related to concussions may lead to lawsuits and limited youth participation.  The anthem protests are something about which I’m reluctant to write (given the unfortunate state of the modern university).  But to keep it simple – the anthem protests have inserted some ugly “politics” into what is fundamentally an entertainment category.  If the product becomes less fun, why would you expect fans to enjoy it as much?  And while the phrase “less fun” might seem to trivialize the issues, sports consumption is about as discretionary as it gets.

Nevertheless, while the NFL has challenges, it is still the preeminent US sports league.  How the league fares in the future is probably going to be based on the strength of its strongest brands.  Which brings us back to our fundamental question – What are the best brands or fan bases in the NFL?

 

The Winners

The top five fan bases (team brands if you prefer) are the Cowboys, Patriots, Eagles, Giants and Steelers.  This is unchanged from last year.  The first switch in the rankings is the number 6 and 7 positions with the Bears moving ahead of the Saints.

The Cowboys excel on all the metrics.  They win in terms of Fan Equity (a revenue premium measure of brand strength), Road Equity and finish second in social media.  The underlying data (I will spare everybody the statistical models) reveals why Dallas does so well.  The Cowboy’s average home attendance usually leads the league, fans are willing to pay high prices, and the team’s the twitter following is exceptional.  The Cowboys are America’s team.

The similarity across rankings gives me faith in the results.  However, the fan in me still questions some of what I see.  In terms of full disclosure, I grew up a Steelers fan in the 1970s and lived in the Chicago during the Bears glory days.  As such, I bring my personal biases to the interpretation of the findings.  I can’t help to think of the Patriots as having bandwagon fans, and the Eagles above the Steelers just does not seem right.

The analyst in me understands that the value of this approach is that the data can help correct my biases.  A couple of comments.  Patriot fans may be bandwagon fans.  But they have been on the wagon a long time.  A couple of decades of success likely means that the Patriots will remain NFL royalty even after Tom Brady leaves the game.

The Eagle surprise me (and probably most of western Pennsylvania).  They do get a bump from playing in the NFC East in terms of the Road Equity metric.  The NFC East is a strong collection of brands that benefit each other.  The Giants also benefit.  It is not easy to disentangle these effects.  And perhaps we shouldn’t since we can make a case that the rivalries that benefit these teams are because of the interest in the individual brands.

 

The Losers

At the bottom of the rankings, we have the Browns, Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams and Titans.  This is an interesting group.  We have the struggling Browns, but we also have some teams like the Titans, Jaguars and Chiefs that had success last year.  The thing to realize is that the model evaluates results based on how the league works on average.  If a team wins but does not convert the wins to increased revenues or social following, then the team will suffer in the rankings.

The good news for these teams (Jags, Chiefs, Titans) is that on-field success is the best way to create brand equity and fan loyalty.  The bad news is that it takes a good amount of success to move the needle long-term.

For the Rams and the Chargers, we should probably include an asterisk. Moving markets and playing in temporary stadiums can lead to some questionable data.

 

The List

The complete list follows.  In addition to the overall ranking of fan bases, I also report rankings on the social and road measures.  Following the table, I provide a bit more detail regarding each of the metrics.

2018 NFL Brand Rankings

 

Further Explanations

Fan Equity

Winners: Cowboys, 49ers, Patriots

Losers: Rams*, Raiders, Jaguars

Fan Equity looks at home revenues relative to expected revenue based on team performance and market characteristics.  The goal of the metric is to measure over or under performance relative to other teams in the league.  In other words, statistical models are used to create an apples-to-apples type comparison to avoid distortions due to long-term differences in market size or short-term differences in winning rates.

Just like last year, the 49ers are the interesting winner on this metric.  After the last couple of years, it is doubtful that people are thinking about the 49ers having a rabid fan base.  However, the 49ers are a great example of how the approach works.  On the field, the 49ers have not performed well.  Despite the on-field struggles, the 49ers still pack in the fans and charge high prices.  This is evidence of a very strong brand because even while losing the 49ers fans still attend and spend.  In terms of the overall rankings the 49ers don’t do all that great because the team does not perform as well as a road or social media draw.

In terms of business concepts, this “Fan Equity” measure is similar to a “revenue premium” measure of brand equity.  It captures the differentials in fan’s willingness to financially support teams of similar quality.  From a business or marketing perspective this is a gold standard of metrics as it directly relates to how a strong brand translates to revenues and profits.

One important thing to note is that some teams may not be trying to maximize revenues.  Perhaps the team is trying to build a fan base by keeping prices low.  Or a team my price on the low side based on some notion of loyalty to its community.   In these cases, the Fan equity metric may understate the engagement of fans.  I suspect that this is the case for the Steelers.

 

Social Media Equity

Winners: Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers

Losers: Rams, Jaguars, Titans

Social Media Equity is also an example of a “premium” based measure of brand equity.  It differs from the Fan Equity in that it focuses on how many fans a team has online rather than fans’ willingness to pay higher prices.  Similar to Fan Equity, Social Media Equity is also constructed using statistical models that control for performance and market differences.

In terms of business application, the social media metric has several implications both on its own merits and in conjunction with the Fan Equity measure.  For example, the lack of local constraints, means that the Social Equity measure is more of a national level measure.  so while the Fan Equity metric focuses on local box office revenues, the social metric provides insight into how a team’s fandom extends beyond a metro area.

Social Media Equity may also serve as a leading indicator of a team’s future fortunes.  For a team to grow revenues it is often necessary to implement controversial price increases.  Convincing fans to sign expensive contracts to buy season tickets can also be a challenge.  Increasing prices and acquiring season ticket holders can therefore take time, while social media communities can grow quickly.  Some preliminary analysis suggests that vibrant social communities are positively correlated with future revenue growth.

A comparison of Fan Equity and Social Media can also be useful.  If Social Media equity exceeds Fan Equity it is evidence that the team has some marketing potential that is not being exploited.  For example, one issue that is common in sports is that it is difficult to estimate the price elasticity of demand because demand is often highest for the best teams and best seats.  The unconstrained nature of social media can provide an important data point for assessing whether a team has additional pricing flexibility.

 

Road Equity

Winners: The NFC East, Raiders, Patriots and Steelers

Losers: Texans, Titans and Browns

Another way to look at fan quality is to look at how a team draws on the Road.  There was a famous case in Atlanta just a few years ago, when Steelers fans turned the Georgia dome Gold and Black. This one has a bit of a muddled interpretation.  If a team has great road attendance is it because the fans are following the team or because they have a national following?  In other words, do the local fans travel or does a team with high road attendance have a national following.  When the Steelers turned the Georgia Dome Yellow and Black was it because Steelers fans came down from Pittsburgh or because Steelers fans are everywhere.

I suspect that we are capturing a measure of national following rather than a tendency to travel.  The Road Equity rankings are dominated by high profile teams such as the Cowboys, Patriots and Steelers.  These teams also do very well on the Social Equity measure (which also measures national following).  This correlation gives me a little confidence that the Road Equity picks up a measure of national following.

 

 

 

 

MLB Fan Marketing Report 2018

As we enter the 2018 season, it’s time to take a look at MLB from a marketing perspective.  Specifically, the goal today is to evaluate MLB teams in terms of fan loyalty and engagement.  Who has the best fans in Major League Baseball?  What are the best brands in MLB? These are simple questions without simple answers.  What makes for a great fan or brand?  Fans that show up even when the team is losing?  Fans that are willing to pay the most?  Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or via social media?

Even after we agree on the question(s), answering it is also a challenge.  How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium?  Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries?   An analysis of fandom should account for short-term variations in on-field performance.  There is also the matter of differences across markets.  How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Milwaukee?  What if a team just opened a new stadium?  Did the fans stream in to see the building or to see the team.

For the past few years, I have been studying fandom across professional and college sports.  My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here).  The key is that these models are used to determine which cities fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term variations in performance.  The goal is to provide as much of an “apples” to “apples” comparison as possible.

 

The Best Fans?

It is possible to rank fans on many different dimensions. And different dimensions can have different meanings and nuances.  For today – I’m going to develop an “overall” ranking of fans based on three sub-rankings – Fan Equity, Social Equity and Road Equity.  Fan Equity is a revenue premium based metric that compares team’s box office results with league standards.  In other words, Fan Equity assesses how much fans are willing to spend relative to fans across the league.  I think of this metric as about “attend and spend.”  The KEY idea is that we measure “attend and spend” while controlling for team success and market characteristics like income and population.

  • Fan Equity is a great metric for assessing the CURRENT level of passion or engagement in a local fan base.

Social Equity is focused on the team’s social media followings (Facebook and Twitter).  Again, the rankings are based on how a team’s social media results compare across the league after controlling for team success and market.  Social Equity is also attractive in that the metric does not require fans to spend or to live in a local market.

  • The Social Equity metric provides insight into the team’s POTENTIAL fan passion.

The third metric is Road Equity.  This metric is based on a statistical model that looks at how teams draw incremental fans when on the road.  The KEY idea is that draw outside of the home market reveals something about a clubs national appeal. This passion can be positive (love the Cubs) or negative (hate the Yankees).

  • Road Equity provides a metric of passion beyond the local market.  A measure of NATIONAL brand equity.

I could go on.  In the past I have developed additional metrics related to win sensitivity or price sensitivity.  Willingness to attend even when the team loses probably says something about loyalty.  Fans that don’t watch a loser might be termed bandwagon fans.  Willingness to pay is a great marketing metric.  Willingness to pay to see a team that isn’t winning is another great indication of loyalty.  These metrics are available upon request (FYI, I don’t look at the comments so please email) but I want to keep this article brief.

So, we have three metrics with different pluses and minuses.  In the quest to find an overall winner – I’m going to take the simplest approach and average the rankings.  I don’t think this is the ideal approach, but it is simple. Simple is a great default.

 

The Winners

Overall, the group of clubs that comprise the Top 6 contains little in the way of surprises.  The Red Sox rank number one and are followed by the Yankees Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals.  The Red Sox are perennially strong and finished third last year.  I sort of hate to say it, but Boston is probably the best sports town in America.

 

In general, the clubs at the top of the list share several traits.  They are all able to motivate fans to “attend and spend” as they all possess great attendance numbers and are able to charge relatively high prices.  More to the point, these teams are able to draw well and command price premiums when they are not winning.  The last few years excepted, Cubs are the best example of this.

The list of winners probably raises an issue of “large” market bias.  However, keep in mind that the methodology is designed to control for home market effects.  The method is explicitly designed to control for differences in market demographics (and team performance).  While the “winners” tend to come from the bigger and more lucrative markets, other major market teams do not fair particularly well (White Sox, Mets, A’s).  There is also a more subtle point.  The large market teams likely have the best fan bases because they often have significant histories of success and are often featured in the media. The topic of how these brands are built over time is another of my favorite things to talk about.  But, it’s a topic for another day.

 

The Laggards

The bottom of the list features the Marlins, Athletics and White Sox.  It is interesting that the bottom of the rankings includes teams from major markets such as the SF Bay Area, Chicago and Miami.  Being in a major market might be a double edged sword.  There are natural advantages in terms of building brand equity but there are also dangers.  Failing to succeed in a “large” market might be the worst possible situation (fan expectations?)

The Marlins finish is a reflection of how the team struggles on multiple dimensions. Attendance is often in the bottom 5 of the league despite being located in a major metro area.  Pricing is also below average for MLB.

From a branding perspective it is not surprising that we see one dominant brand in the cities with two clubs.  Being a sports fan is about being part of a community.  Many fans are drawn to the bigger and more dominant community – Yankees, Cubs, Giants or Dodgers rather than the Mets, White Sox, A’s or Angels.

There is also likely a story about consistency.  I chose an old school logo for the Sox.  I grew up in Chicago and the Cubs were always the same classic stadium and classic uniforms.  The Sox seemed to change things every season – new colors and logos.  I even have faint memories of the team wearing shorts on occasion.

The List

The complete list follows.  In addition to the overall ranking of fan bases, I also report rankings on the Fan Equity, Social Equity and Road Equity measures. Enjoy!

Listen to the full podcast episode here: https://soundcloud.com/user-444461821-683834833/major-league-baseball-fandom-episode-1

NFL Fan Base and Brand Rankings 2017

NFL Fandom Report 2017: The “Best” NFL Fans

Who has the best fans in the NFL?  What are the best brands in the NFL? These are simple questions without simple answers.  First we have to decide what we mean by “best”.  What makes for a great fan or brand?  Fans that show up even when the team is losing?  Fans that are willing to pay the highest prices?  Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?

Even after we agree on the question, answering it is also a challenge.  How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium?  Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries?  How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Green Bay?

My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here).  The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term changes in winning and losing.

In past years, two measures of engagement have been featured: Fan Equity and Social Media Equity.  Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet) and Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s community (support exhibited by joining social media communities).  This year I am adding a third measure Road Equity.  Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance.   These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.

To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest possible method.  We are just going to average the across the three metrics.  (similar analyses are available for the NBA and MLB).

The Winners

The top five fan bases (team brands if you prefer) are the Cowboys, Patriots, Eagles, Giants and Steelers.  The Cowboys excel on all the metrics.  They win in terms of Fan Equity (a revenue premium measure of brand strength), Road Equity and finish second in social media.  The underlying data (I will spare everybody the statistical models) reveals why Dallas does so well.  The Cowboy’s average home attendance (reported by ESPN) is more than 10,000 higher than the next team.  The Cowboys average ticket price is also well above average and they have the second most Twitter followers after the Patriots.  The other thing to note is that the Cowboys achieve these year in and year out , even in years when the team is not great.  

There are likely some objections to the list.  Patriot fans are bandwagon fans!  The Steelers are too low!  The Eagles above the Packers or Bears?!   Way too much to get into in a short blog post but a couple of comments.

First, Patriot fans may be bandwagon fans.  But at this point it is tough to tell.  The team has been excellent and the fans have been supportive for a long time.  And even when things tend to go wrong for the Patriots they come out ahead.  I believe that the deflate gate controversy had a significant positive impact on the Patriots’ social media following.

The Steelers are low in Fan Equity and higher on the other metrics.  We can trace this to the Steelers pricing.  The Steelers seem to price on the low side of what is possible.

The Eagle do surprise me.  They do get a bump from playing in the NFC East interms of the Road Equity metric.  The NFC East is a strong collection of brands that benefit each other.  It is not easy to disentangle these effects.  And perhaps we shouldn’t since we can make a case that the rivalries that benefit these teams are because of the interest in the individual brands.

The Losers

At the other extreme we have the Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, Rams and Chiefs.  Some of these are no surprises.  At the top of the list we have the NFL’s royalty.  No one has ever placed the Bengals, Jaguars or titans in that category.

The teams at the bottom of the rankings all suffer from relatively low attendance, have below average pricing power and have limited social followings.  The Rams are a special case.  While not a great brand in past years, the move to LA tends to punish the Rams because their results have not kept pace with the higher income and population levels in LA.

The Chiefs are the tough one on this list.  The Chiefs fill their stadium but at relatively low price.  Keep in mind that the analysis includes factors such as population and median income.  In addition, Kansas City was ranked 29th in terms of Road Attendance last year and the social media following (Twitter) is middle of the road.  The fundamental issue is that that the Chiefs produce these below average fan-based results while performing well above average on the field.

The Complete List

The complete list follows.  In addition to the overall ranking of fan bases, I also report rankings on the social and road measures.  Following the table, I provide a bit more detail regarding each of the metrics.

Three metrics are used to get a complete picture of fans.  But there are other ways to look at fan behavior and brand strength.  For example, we could look at pricing power (which teams are able to extract significant price premiums) or bandwagon fan behavior (which fans are most sensitive to winning).  I’m happy to provide these additional rankings if there is interest.

Fan Equity

Winners: Cowboys, Patriots and 49ers

Losers: Rams, Raiders, Jags

Fan Equity looks at home revenues relative to expected revenue based on team performance and market characteristics.  The goal of the metric is to measure over or under performance relative to other teams in the league.  In other words, statistical models are used to create an apples-to-apples type comparison to avoid distortions due to long-term differences in market size or short-term differences in winning rates.

The 49ers are the interesting winner on this metric.  After the last couple of years, it is doubtful that people are thinking about the 49ers having a rabid fan base.  However, the 49ers are a great example of how the approach works.  On the field the 49ers have been terrible.  But despite the on-field struggles the 49ers still pack in the fans and charge high prices.  This is evidence of a very strong brand because even while losing the 49ers fans still attend and spend.  In terms of the overall rankings the 49ers don’t do all that great because the team does not perform as well as a road or social media draw.

In terms of business concepts, this “Fan Equity” measure is similar to a “revenue premium” measure of brand equity.  It captures the differentials in fan’s willingness to financially support teams of similar quality.  From a business or marketing perspective this is a gold standard of metrics as it directly relates to how a strong brand translates to revenues and profits.

One important thing to note is that some teams may not be trying to maximize revenues.  Perhaps the team is trying to build a fan base by keeping prices low.  Or a team my price on the low side based on some notion of loyalty to its community.   In these cases the Fan equity metric may understate the engagement of fans.

Social Media Equity

Winners: Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos

Losers: Chiefs, Rams and Cardinals

Social Media Equity is also an example of a “premium” based measure of brand equity.  It differs from the Fan Equity in that it focuses on how many fans a team has online rather than fans’ willingness to pay higher prices.  Similar to Fan Equity, Social Media Equity is also constructed using statistical models that control for performance and market differences.

In terms of business application, the social media metric has several implications both on its own merits and in conjunction with the Fan Equity measure.  For example, the lack of local constraints, means that the Social Equity measure is more of a national level measure.  so while the Fan Equity metric focuses on local box office revenues, the social metric provides insight into how a team’s fandom extends beyond a metro area.

Social Media Equity may also serve as a leading indicator of a team’s future fortunes.  For a team to grow revenues it is often necessary to implement controversial price increases.  Convincing fans to sign expensive contracts to buy season tickets can also be a challenge.  Increasing prices and acquiring season ticket holders can therefore take time, while social media communities can grow quickly.  Some preliminary analysis suggests that vibrant social communities are positively correlated with future revenue growth.

A comparison of Fan Equity and Social Media can also be useful.  If Social Media equity exceeds Fan Equity it is evidence that the team has some marketing potential that is not being exploited.  For example, one issue that is common in sports is that it is difficult to estimate the price elasticity of demand because demand is often highest for the best teams and best seats.  The unconstrained nature of social media can provide an important data point for assessing whether a team has additional pricing flexibility.

Road Equity

Winners: Cowboys, Eagles and Raiders

Losers: Texans, Titans and Seahawks

Another way to look at fan quality is to look at how a team draws on the Road.  In the NBA these effects are pronounced.  Lebron or a retiring Kobe coming to town can often lead to sell outs.  At the college level some teams are known to travel very well.  A fan base that travels is almost by definition incredible passionate.

This one has a bit of a muddled interpretation.  If a team has great road attendance is it because the fans are following the team or because they have a national following?  In other words, do the local fans travel or does a team with high road attendance have a national following.  When the Steelers turned the Georgia Dome Yellow and Black was it because Steelers fans came down from Pittsburg or because the Steelers have fans everywhere.

Furthermore, if it is a national following is it because the team is popular across the country or because a lot of folks have moved from places like Pittsburgh or Buffalo to the Sun Belt.  A national following is a great characteristic that might suggest that a team’s brand is on an upswing.  Or it might be that the city itself is on a downward trajectory.

 

 

MLB Fan Base and Brand Rankings 2017

MLB Fandom Report 2017: The “Best” Fans in Baseball – Rough Draft

Who has the best fans in Major League Baseball?  What are the best brands in MLB? These are simple questions without simple answers.  What makes for a great fan or brand?  Fans that show up even when the team is losing?  Fans that are willing to pay the most?  Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?

Even after we agree on the question(s), answering it is also a challenge.  How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium?  Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries?  How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Milwaukee?  What if a team just opened a new stadium?

My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here).  The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term variations in performance.

This year’s overall rankings are based on three sub-rankings.  In past years, two measures of engagement have been featured: Fan Equity and Social Media Equity.  Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet) and Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s community (support exhibited by joining social media communities).  This year I am adding a third measure – Road Equity.  Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance.   These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.

To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest method possible.  We are just going to average the across the three metrics.

Today’s post is focused on MLB but if you are interested you can see last year’s NBA fan rankings here and this year’s  NFL rankings will be posted soon.

The Winners

Overall, the group of clubs that comprise the Top 5 contains little in the way of surprises.  The Yankees rank number one and are followed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants and Dodgers.  The Yankees “win” because they draw fans (usually top 5) and charge high prices even when on-field results dip.  The Yankees are also a great attraction on the road and have an enormous social media following.

In general, the clubs at the top of the list share these same traits.  They are all able to motivate fans to attend and spend as they all possess great attendance numbers and relatively high prices.  More to the point, these teams are even able to draw well and command price premiums when they are not winning.  The Cubs are the best example of this.

The list of winners probably raises an issue of “large” market bias.  However, keep in mind that the methodology is designed to control for home market effects.  The method is explicitly designed to control for differences in market demographics (and team performance).  While the “winners” tend to come from the bigger and more lucrative markets, other major market teams do not fair particularly well (see below).

The Laggards

The bottom of the list features the Marlins, Indians, Athletics, Angels and White Sox.  It is interesting that the bottom also includes teams from major markets such as LA, Chicago and Miami.

The Marlins finish is a reflection of how the team struggles on multiple dimensions. Attendance is often in the bottom 5 of the league despite being located in a major metro area.  Pricing is also below average for MLB.  Cleveland also struggles on these metrics but given the advantages of the Miami market, the Marlins relative performance is just a bit worse.

From a branding perspective it is not surprising that we see one dominant brand in the cities with two clubs.  Being a sports fan is about being part of a community.  Many fans are drawn to the bigger and more dominant community – Yankees, Cubs or Dodgers rather than the Mets, White Sox or Angels.  The A’s probably also suffer a similar set of problems as they compete against the Giants in the Bay area.

The Complete List

The complete list follows.  In addition to the overall ranking of fan bases, I also report rankings on the social and road measures.  Following the table, I provide a bit more detail regarding each of the metrics.

The Details

Fan Equity

The Winners: Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals

The Losers: Mets, Indians and Marlins

Fan Equity looks at home revenues relative to expected revenue based on team performance and market characteristics.  The goal of the metric is to measure over (or under) performance relative to other teams in the league.  In other words, statistical models are used to create an apples-to-apples type comparison to avoid distortions due to long-term differences in market size or short-term differences in winning rates.

In terms of business concepts, this measure is similar to a “revenue premium” measure of brand equity.  It captures the differentials in fans willingness to financially support teams of similar quality.  From a business or marketing perspective this is a gold standard of metrics as it directly relates to how a strong brand translates to revenues and profits.

However, the context is sports, and that does make things different.  At a basic level sports organizations have dual objectives.  They care about winning and profit.  That is important because some teams may not be trying to maximize revenues.  Perhaps the team is trying to build a fan base by keeping prices low.   If this is the case the Fan equity metric understates the engagement of fans.

The Cardinals are the big story in terms of fan equity.  St. Louis is a unique baseball town.  Amazingly supportive fans for a market the size of St. Louis.  The Cardinals just fall short on the other more national metrics.

Social Media Equity

Winners: Blue Jays, Braves, and Yankees

Losers: Mariners, A’s and Nationals

Social Media Equity is also an example of a “premium” based measure of brand equity.  It differs from the Fan Equity in that it focuses on how many fans a team has online rather than fans’ willingness to pay higher prices.  Similar to the Fan Equity metric, Social Media Equity is also constructed using statistical models that control for performance and market differences.  Social Media Equity is more about potential.  I think that social equity is an indicator of what can be built.  but teams still have to win to make the conversion.

In terms of business application, the social media metric has several implications both on its own merits and in conjunction with the Fan Equity measure.  For example, the lack of local constraints, means that the Social Equity measure is more of a national level measure.  The Fan Equity metric focuses on local box office revenues.  In contrast, the social metric provides insight into how a team’s fandom extends beyond a metro area.

Social Media Equity may also serve as a leading indicator of a team’s future fortunes.  For a team to grow revenues it is often necessary to implement controversial price increases.  Convincing fans to sign expensive contracts to buy season tickets can also be a challenge.  Increasing prices and acquiring season ticket holders can take time while social media communities can grow quickly.  Social community size has been found to be positively correlated with future revenue growth.

A comparison of Fan Equity and Social Media can be useful.  If Social Media equity exceeds Fan Equity it is evidence that the team has some marketing potential that is not being exploited.  For example, one issue that is common in sports is that it is difficult to estimate the price elasticity of demand because demand is often highest for the best teams and best seats.  The unconstrained nature of social media can provide an important data point for assessing whether teams have additional pricing flexibility.

This is an interesting list of winners.  My guess is that the Braves and Blue Jays are on the upswing as brands.  For the teams at the bottom – it’s a concerning situation.  These teams don’t seem to be capturing the next generation.

Road Equity

Winners: Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs

Losers: Marlins, White Sox and Indians

This is a new metric for the blog. One way to look at fan quality is to look at how a team draws on the Road.  In the NBA these effects are pronounced.  Lebron or a retiring Kobe coming to town can often lead to sell outs.  At the college level some teams are known to travel very well.  A fan base that travels is almost by definition incredibly passionate.

This one has a bit of a muddled interpretation.  If a team has great road attendance is it because the fans are following the team or because they have a national following?  If the Yankees play the Rays and attendance spikes is it because Yankees fans travel or because Tampa  residents come out to see the Yankees?

The winners on this list are no surprise.  One reason I like this metric is that it is consistent with the conventional wisdom.  It has tons of face validity.

At the bottom of the rankings we have the Marlins, Indians and White Sox.  These seem to be struggling brands that lack local and national appeal.

 

 

NFL Bandwagon Fans and the Business of Fan Rankings

The Business behind Fan Base Analysis: Sponsorship Insights

Today’s post is a follow up to the NFL fan base rankings post.  The annual NFL Fan base ranking involves a combination of data analysis and marketing ideas (brand equity).  I do them as a single ranking to make it easily digestible and to encourage conversation.  Or in the case of Raider Fans – to generate threats.  Today, I go beyond a single ranking and present multiple fan base metrics.  The goal is to provide a richer description of how teams’ fans compare.  Specifically, we present rankings focused on brand equity, social media, road attendance and “bandwagon” behavior.

The fan analysis material is meant to be both instructive and to provide material for debate.  Sports brands are unique in the degree of loyalty that exists between fans and teams.  The reaction to the fan base rankings highlights the intensity of the relationships as people take it very personally when their fandom is questioned.  It’s interesting that it matters to fans not only that their team is competitive but that their passion for their team also exceeds the opposition’s.  As such it’s crucial for teams to thoroughly understand the strengths and weaknesses of their fan bases.

Something that tends to get lost in the discussion of fan base rankings is that the results have very significant business implications.  The fan equity and other measures that we discuss today tell an essential story about fans in each city.  If I am a brand looking to sponsor a stadium or a fast food company looking to do a deal with a team, then I very much want to know about the underlying long-term passion and behaviors of the fan base.

A common approach for valuing sports properties is the use of comparables.  The basic idea is that some entity, like a team or player, can be valued by looking at similar teams or players.  For example, a way to value a team is to look at previous sales and then make some adjustments for differences in population or income across markets.  Stadium naming deals are often similarly driven by past deals.

The Fan Equity work and rankings below provide extra factors that can be added to analyses based on comparables.  The rankings can be used to go beyond demographics driven comparisons to include a measure of engagement or loyalty.

In what follows, I provide a few insights about each of the metrics and then a Table that provides a complete breakdown.  I also discuss the business relevance of each of metric.  There are a number of caveats that should be offered such as the importance of looking at multiple metrics or noting that the results rely on public data.  But these explanations are a bit tedious and the key point is that the metrics should be carefully interpreted.

One important factor that should be stressed is that all of the measures are based on market place behaviors of fans like attending games and following on social media rather than consumer opinions collected via surveys.

The rankings should be interpreted with care.  A high ranking on the brand equity measures is something to strive for while a high ranking in the bandwagon category is something to avoid.


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Fan Equity

The Winners: Cowboys, Patriots and Ravens

The Losers: Jaguars, Raiders and Dolphins

Fan Equity is the core of the Dynamic Fan Equity (DFE) metric used to summarize fan bases.  It looks at home revenues relative to expected revenue based on team performance and market characteristics.  The goal of the metric is to measure over (or under) performance relative to other teams in the league.  In other words, statistical models are used to create an apples to apples type comparison to avoid distortions due to long-term differences in market size or short-term differences in winning rates.

In terms of business concepts, this measure is similar to a “revenue premium” measure of brand equity.  It captures the differentials in fans willingness to financially support teams of similar quality.  From a business or marketing perspective this is a gold standard of metrics as it directly relates to how a strong brand translates to revenues and profits.

However, the Fan Equity context is sports, and that does make things different.  At a basic level sports organizations have dual objectives.  They care about winning and profit.  That is important because sometimes teams aren’t trying to maximize revenues (Packers, Steelers, etc…).   When this is the case the Fan Equity metric understates the engagement of fans.

What is the importance of Fan Equity for sponsorship?  Fan Equity shows the relative commitment to spend to support the team.  If we make the assumption that paying a premium (remember the model controls for the income differences across markets) is correlated with passion then teams with higher fan equity have fans that are more deeply bonded to the team.  These teams should receive a bump in terms of sponsorship deals.

 

Social Media Equity

Winners: Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos

Losers: Rams, Chiefs and Cardinals

An issue with the Fan Equity measure is that it can be constrained by capacity or by team pricing decisions.  If teams have a small stadium or are NOT pricing to maximize revenues then the Fan Equity measure can understate the team’s following.  In contrast to buying a ticket, following on social media is free and not impacted by geography.  It’s just as easy to follow the Seahawks as it is to follow the Falcons while sitting in Atlanta.

Social Media Equity is also an example of a “premium” based measure of brand equity.  It differs from the Fan Equity in that it focuses on how many fans a team has online rather than fans’ willingness to pay higher prices.  Social Media Equity is also constructed using statistical models that control for performance and market differences.

In terms of business application, the social media metric has several implications both on its own merits and in conjunction with the Fan Equity measure.  For example, the lack of local constraints, means that the Social Equity measure is more of a national level measure.  The Fan Equity metric focuses on local box office revenues while the social metric provides insight into how a team’s fandom extends beyond a metro area.

Social Media Equity may also serve as a leading indicator of a team’s future fortunes.  For a team to grow revenues it is often necessary to implement controversial price increases.  Convincing fans to sign expensive contracts to buy season tickets can also be a challenge.  Increasing prices and acquiring season ticket holders can therefore take time while social media communities can grow quickly.  Some preliminary analysis suggests that vibrant social communities are positively correlated with future revenue growth.

A comparison of Fan Equity and Social Media can also be useful.  If Social Media equity exceeds Fan Equity it is evidence that the team has some marketing potential that is not being exploited.  For example, one issue that is common in sports is that it is difficult to estimate the price elasticity of demand because demand is often highest for the best teams and best seats.  The unconstrained nature of social media can provide an important data point for assessing whether teams have additional pricing flexibility.

 

Road / Diaspora Equity

Winners: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants and the Bills in TOP TEN!

Losers: Chiefs, Cardinals and Texans

This is a new metric for the blog and a vocabulary lesson all in one.  One way to look at fan quality is to look at how a team draws on the Road.  For example, in the NBA these effects are pronounced.  Lebron or a retiring Kobe coming to town can often lead to sell outs.  College football is especially noted for traveling fans (SEC!).  A fan base that travels is almost by definition incredibly passionate.

This one has a bit of a muddled interpretation.  If a team has great road attendance is it because the fans are following the team or because they have a national following?  In other words, are fans traveling to the game or just showing up because it’s the Cowboys or Steelers?  Furthermore, if it is a national following is it because the team is popular across the country or because a lot of folks have moved from Pittsburgh or Buffalo to the Sun Belt?

Road Equity tells a story and suggests a need for additional research.  A national following is a great characteristic that might suggest that a team’s brand is on an upswing.  Or it might be that the city itself is on a downward trajectory.  Road equity might also be a matter of temporary factors (beyond winning) if fans are drawn to star or controversial players.

 

Band Wagon Fans

Biggest Bandwagon Fans: Cardinals and Cowboys

Loyal to a Fault: Bills, Lions and Redskins

This ranking looks at how responsive attendance is to winning.  This is a fun one because there are two really different interpretation of the results.  The more negative one is that a team whose fans show up less when the team is losing has a “fair weather” or “band wagon” fan base.  The other interpretation is that fans that are sensitive to winning are more demanding of quality.  The former seems most likely.

The rankings come directly from a statistical model of attendance.  The top ranked bandwagon fans are the ones whose attendance is most sensitive to winning.  Based on the data and models the Arizona Cardinal fans are the most “Bandwagon” of all the fan bases.  On the other extreme we have the Bills, Lions and Redskins fans as the most loyal.

From a sponsorship perspective, a high bandwagon ranking might make a sponsoring brand leery.  If fans only show up when a team is winning then the team might not have the relationship intensity with fans that a sponsor is trying to leverage.  An important reason for sports sponsorships is that brands want to be associated with teams that fans live and die with.  If a team is just entertainment then maybe a sponsorship is not going to generate the associations and connections desired.

There is complexity in the real world and all of these measures have limits.  The Cowboy fans are an interesting case study.  The Cowboys rank #2 in bandwagon fandom but they also rank very highly in the other brand equity measures.  Cowboy fans buy tickets and follow their team on social media.  The national stature of the Cowboys also brings in fans on the road.  But in terms of actually showing up at games it seems like the fans need a winner.  Loyalty in terms of spending but fair weather in terms of showing up.

The Best NFL Fans 2016: The Dynamic Fan Equity Methodology

The Winners (and Losers) of this years rankings!  First a quick graphic and then the details.

2016B_W

It’s become a tradition for me to rank NFL teams’ fan bases each summer.  The basic approach (more details here) is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest.  These models are used to determine which cities fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term variations in performance.  In past years, two measures of engagement have been featured: Fan Equity and Social Media Equity.  Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet) and Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s community (support exhibited by joining social media communities).

This year I have come up with a new method that combines these two measures: Dynamic Fan Equity (DFE).  The DFE measure leverages the best features of the two measures.  Fan Equity is based on the most important consumer trait – willingness to spend.  Social Equity captures fan support that occurs beyond the walls of the stadium and skews towards a younger demographic.  The key insight that allows for the two measures to be combined is that there is a significant relationship between the Social Media Equity trend and the Fan Equity measure.  Social media performance turns out to be a strong leading indicator for financial performance.

Dynamic Fan Equity is calculated using current fan equity and the trend in fan equity from the team’s social media performance.  I will spare the technical details on the blog but I’m happy to go into depth if there is interest.  On the data side we are working with 15 years of attendance data and 4 years of social data.

The Winners

We have a new number one on the list – the New England Patriots. Followed by the Cowboys, Broncos, 49ers and Eagles.  The Patriots victory is driven by fans willingness to pay premium prices, strong attendance and phenomenal social media following.  The final competition between the Cowboys and the Patriots was actually determined by the long-term value of the Patriots greater social following.  The Patriots have about 2.4 million Twitter followers compared to 1.7 for the Cowboys.  Of course this is all relative a team like the Jaguars has just 340 thousand followers.

The Eagles are the big surprise on the list.  The Eagles are also a good example of how the analysis works.  Most fan rankings are based on subjective judgments and lack controls for short-term winning rates.  This latter point is a critical shortcoming.  It’s easy to be supportive of a winning team. While Eagles fans might not be happy they are supportive in the face of mediocrity.  Last year the Eagles struggled on the field but fans still paid premium prices and filled the stadium.  We’ll come back to the Eagles in more detail in a moment.

The Strugglers

At the bottom we have the Bills, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.  This is a similar list to last year.  The Jags, for example, only filled 91% of capacity (ranked 27th) despite an average ticket price of just $57.  The Chiefs struggle because the fan support doesn’t match the team’s performance.  The Chiefs capacity utilization rate ranks 17th in the league despite a winning record and low ticket prices.  The Raiders fans again finish low in our rankings.  And every year the response is a great deal of anger and often threats.

The Steelers

The one result that gives me the most doubt is for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers have long been considered one of the league premier teams and brands.  The Steelers have a history of championships and have been known to turn opposing stadiums into seas of yellow and black.  So why are the Steelers ranked 18th?

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A comparison between the Steelers and the Eagles highlights the underlying issues.  Last year the Steelers had an average attendance of 64,356 and had an average ticket price of $84 (from ESPN and Team Market Report).  In comparison the Eagles averaged 69,483 fans with an average price of $98.69.  In terms of filling capacity the Steelers were at 98.3% compared to the Eagles at 102.8%.  The key is that the greater support enjoyed by the Eagles was despite a much worse record.

One issue to consider is that of pricing.  It may well be that the Steelers ownership makes a conscious effort to underprice relative to what the market would allow.  The high attendance rates across the NFL do suggest that many teams could profitably raise prices.  It’s entirely reasonable to argue that the Steelers relationship to the Pittsburgh community results in a policy of pricing below market.

In past years the Steelers have been our social media champions.  This past year did see a bit of a dip.  In terms of the Social Media Equity rankings the Steelers dropped to 5th.    As a point of comparison, the Steelers have about 1.3 million Twitter followers compared to 2.4 million for the Patriots and 1.7 million for the Cowboys.

 

The Complete List

And finally, the complete rankings.  Enjoy!


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2016 Pre-Season MLB Social Media Rankings: The Blue Jays Win!

Going into the baseball season, there are all sorts of expectations about how teams are going to perform.  This summer I thought it might be interesting to track social media across a season.  What this means is something of an open question.  I have a bunch of ideas but suggestions are welcome.

But the starting point is clear.  We open with social media equity rankings of MLB clubs.  The basic idea of the social media rankings is that we look at the number of social media followers of each team after statistically controlling for market differences (NY teams should have more followers than San Diego) and for short term changes in winning rates.  The idea is to get a measure of each teams’ fan base after controlling for short-term blips in winning and built in advantages due to market size.  A fuller description of the methodology may be found here.

Social Media Equity is really a measure of fan engagement or passion (no it’s not a perfect measure).  It captures the fact that some teams have larger and more passionate fan bases (again after controlling for market and winning rates) than others.  In this case the assumption is that engagement and passion are strongly correlated with social media community size.  Over the years we have looked at lots of social media metrics and my feeling, at least, is that this most basic of measures is probably the best one.

When we last reported our Social Media Equity ratings  the winners were the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs Phillies and Cardinals.  The teams that struggled were the White Sox, Angels, A’s, Mets and Rays.  This was 2014.  Last summer was kind of a lost summer for the blog.

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But enough background…   The 2016 pre-season social equity rankings feature a top five of the Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Giants.  A lot of similarities from 2014, with the big change being the Blue Jays at the top of the rankings.  One quick observation (we have all summer for more) is that teams with “bigger” geographic regions like the Blue Jays (Canada?), Braves (the American South) and the Red Sox (New England) do well in this measure of brand equity since constraints like stadium capacity don’t play a role.

At the bottom of the rankings it’s the Marlins, Angels, Mariners, A’s and Nationals.  Again a good deal of overlap from earlier.  Maybe the key shared factor at the bottom is tough local competition.  The Angels struggle against the Dodgers, the A’s play second fiddle in the bay area and the Marlins lose out to the beach.

The table below provides the complete rankings and a measure of trend.  The trend shows the relative growth in followers from 2015 to the start of the 2016 season (again after controlling for factors such as winning rates).  The Cubbies are up and comers!  While the Mariners are fading.

Team Social Media Equity Rank Trend Rank
Blue Jays 1 4
Phillies 2 14
Braves 3 10
Red Sox 4 3
Giants 5 7
Yankees 6 21
Tigers 7 2
Reds 8 6
Rangers 9 17
Rays 10 13
Cubs 11 1
Pirates 12 9
Mets 13 5
Padres 14 23
Diamondbacks 15 8
Indians 16 11
Dodgers 17 15
Cardinals 18 25
White Sox 19 20
Brewers 20 22
Oriels 21 27
Astros 22 26
Twins 23 19
Royals 24 28
Rockies 25 16
Marlins 26 29
Angels 27 24
Mariners 28 30
A’s 29 12
Nationals 30 18

More to come….

WNBA Social Media Equity Rankings

We begin our summer of fan base rankings with a project done by one of our favorite Emory students – Ilene Tsao.  Ilene presents a multi-dimensional analysis of the WNBA across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.  The first set of rankings speak to the current state of affairs.  Seattle leads the way followed by LA and Atlanta.  In the second analysis, Ilene takes a look at what is possible in each market (by controlling for time in market and championships).  In this analysis the Atlanta Dream lead the way followed by Minnesota and Chicago.

The teams in the WNBA are constantly looking for ways to improve their brand and continue to expand their fan base. Social media provides a way to measure fan loyalty and support. In order to calculate WNBA teams’ social media equity, we collected data on each team’s followers across the three main social media platforms of Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. We then ran a regression model to help predict followers for each platform as a function of factors such as metropolitan populations, number of professional teams, team winning percentages, and playoff achievements. After creating this model, we used the predicted number of followers and compared it to each team’s actual number of social media followers.  Our goal is to see who “over” or “under” achieves based on social media followers on average. We then ranked the WNBA teams based on the results.

The first model only used the metropolitan population and winning percentage of each team. After taking the average of the Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram rankings, we found the Seattle Storm had the best performance. The Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics consistently ranked as the bottom two teams across all three platforms, but teams like the Los Angeles Sparks and Atlanta Dream had more variation. The Dream ranked 6th for Twitter, but 1st for Instagram while the Sparks ranked 1st for Twitter and 6th for Instagram. This could be because both Instagram and the Dream recently joined the social media world and the WNBA, while the Sparks and Twitter have been around for longer. Based on raw numbers, the New York Liberty has high performance in terms of social media followers, but when we adjust for market size and winning percentage, the team does poorly.

Rankings for Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram based on the metropolitan population and the teams’ winning percentages:

WNBA Social Media 1

The second model extended the previous analysis by incorporating the number of other professional teams in the area and number of WNBA championships won into the regression analysis. This model seemed to be a better fit for our data and resulted in small adjustments in the rankings. After taking the average of all three rankings with the new factors, the Atlanta Dream was ranked first while passing the Seattle Storm and Los Angeles Sparks. The Mystics were no longer consistently the worst team, but were still in the bottom half of the rankings.

Rankings based on metropolitan population, winning percentage, number of other professional teams, and number of WNBA championships:

WNBA Social Media 2Ilene Tsao, Emory University, 2015.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Steelers fans tops in social media but not in spending on team

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Steelers fans tops in social media but not in spending on team

Love is sometimes pursued at all costs, but it’s a little cheaper at Heinz Field.

A recent analysis by Michael Lewis and Manish Tripathi, professors at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School, found that while Steelers fans outpace all the rest in social media engagement, they are only in the middle of the pack in terms of how much they pay to follow their team.

The authors generated two metrics from 13 years of data. The first was “fan equity,” measuring how much fans are willing to pay to support their team through ticket sales and merchandise purchases. The second, “social media equity,” measured fan devotion in the online arena. Both measures were statistically adjusted to control for stadium size, local population, median income and team performance.

NHL Fan Analysis Part 4: Social Media Equity

Note: This is Part IV of our study of NHL Fan Quality.  This week we will be ranking NHL teams/fans on the following dimensions: Fan Equity, Social Media Equity, Fan Equity Growth, Price Elasticity, Win Elasticity, and Social Media based Personality.  For more details on our measures of quality, please click here.  For Part I, click here.  For Part II click here.  For Part III click here.

NHL 2014 Social EquityToday we continue our analyses of NHL fan bases with something thoroughly modern: Social Media Equity.  In this analysis, we look at how teams’ combined social media following on Facebook and Twitter compares to teams that have similar records and populations.  Social Media Equity has some significant pluses in that it is not constrained by stadium capacity, and allows for including non-local fan support.  Social Media Equity may also be a forward-looking metric since social media is more prevalent among younger consumers.

The social media rankings are dominated by the traditional NHL powers.  Detroit is first followed by Boston, New York (Rangers), Pittsburgh and Chicago.  A significant difference between the revenue premium based brand equity ranking and the social media based rankings is the relative position of US and Canadian teams.  The US teams dominate the social media rankings while the Canadian teams dominate the Fan Equity rankings.  At the bottom of the rankings we have Anaheim, Columbus, Tampa Bay, Phoenix and St. Louis.  These tend to be the teams that struggle on many of our fan metrics.

Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.