In our current series on college basketball programs’ abilities to transform their available high school talent into NBA draft picks, we have decided to start with summary data for each school. We plan on concluding the series with a statistical model that predicts the likelihood of a player being drafted based on the player’s recruiting ranking, the school’s investment in the program, the rankings of the player’s teammates and other factors. We decided to start with the summary efficiency rankings simply because these rankings are more accessible to fans and tend to generate more conversation.
Our series continues with an examination of recruiting classes from 2002-2011 in the PAC-12. The chart below lists our efficiency rankings for the PAC-12 (for more details on our methodology, please click here). The University of Washington was the clear leader in the PAC-12 in converting talent into NBA draft picks. The Huskies were followed by USC and Cal. Traditional power UCLA finished 5th.
In the period of our study, Washington produced nine draft picks, and 22% of the overall recruits for UW were drafted into the NBA. 66% of 5-Star recruits, 31% of 4-Star recruits, and 12.5% of 3-Star recruits from UW were drafted. This is truly remarkable given the overall national draft rates: 51% for 5-Star, 13% for 4-Star and 3% for 3-Star!
USC finished second in the PAC-12 rankings. The Trojans had 29% of their 4-Star recruits drafted, and had two 3-Star recruits drafted in the first round. Cal finishing third potentially speaks to the importance of the head coach in the efficiency rankings. Mike Montgomery, the head coach for Cal, was at Stanford in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the Cardinal enjoyed an excellent talent to NBA draft pick conversion rate. Current head coach Johnny Dawkins has produced a grand total of 0 draft picks for the Cardinal from his recruiting classes.
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