These are detailed notes for my Policy Analysis class, which covers how to perform CBO-type predictions of the impact of policy changes.

**Chapter 1.TheFieldofPolicyAnalysis**

What is the role of policy analysis in government and the private sector. Predicting the impactÂ of adding calorie labels to menus.

**Chapter 2.HowToThinkLikeAPolicyAnalyst**

How to develop an analysis to predict the impact of electric charging stations.

The different types of assumptions (e.g., behavioral, biologic, counting) assumptions that go into policy analysis.

How to make good assumptions regarding causal effects. Interpreting odds ratios, risk ratios, and marginal effects.

**Chapter5.WritingaPolicyAnalysis**

Clear communication. (Edits in progress.)

How to present results clearly in tables and graphs.

Various approaches taken to predict the impact of lockdowns and other policies on the trajectory of COVID.

Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

How to develop assumptions regarding the cost of physician visits, inpatient visits, and drugs. The dead weight loss of taxation.

The rational for discounting in policy analysis.

How to adjust cost assumptions for inflation. Difference price indices and the difficulty of measuring price changes.

Using economic theory to predict the impact of policies.

Regulatory impact analysis. The basis of assumptions regarding the value of a statistical life year. Contingent valuation.

How do modelers predict the impact of health reform proposals?

The meaning and measurement of productivity costs.