Heatwaves caused over 166,000 deaths between 1998 and 2017, and steadily worsening global heating is causing steadily worsening heatwaves. In coming decades, deadly heat will intensify but will be unevenly distributed in space, disproportionately affecting the tropics and vulnerable urban populations with limited access to air conditioning (AC). Using global climate models (GCMs), high-resolution remote sensing data, health data, and AC data, we will create annual projections of humid heat to 2100 and relate them to health impacts. Our work will target the world’s major cities and provide humid heat risk projections at 375 m resolution, capable of resolving urban heat islands (UHI) due to a concentration of low-albedo urban surfaces. This project will build capacity for identifying projected heat risk in urban regions that could be used for mitigating morbidity and mortality due to extreme humid heat under climate change.
Study locations: CA, AZ, OR, UT, NJ, NY, NC, NV, GA, MD, and MO
Investigators: Howard Chang (PI)
Current or Recent Funding Sources: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Previous Funding Sources: National Institutes of Health (R21ES023763)
Category: Climate and Health
PUBLICATIONS (* = student author)
Project Publications
- In progress
Foundational Work
- Chen T*, Sarnat SE, Grundstein AJ, Winquist A, Chang HH. Time-series analysis of heat waves and emergency department visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125(5):057009, 2017. (link)
- Chang HH, Sarnat SE, Liu Y. Projecting health impacts of climate change: embracing an uncertain future. Chance Magazine, 30(4):55-61, 2017. (link)
- Winquist A, Grundstein A, Chang HH, Hess J, Sarnat SE. Warm-season temperatures and emergency department visits in Atlanta, Georgia. Environmental Research, 147:314-323, 2016. (link)
- Chang HH, Hao H*, Sarnat SE. A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change. Atmospheric Environment 89:290-297, 2014. (link)