“Hope is not a strategy”

Do you like rollercoasters? My first five years of life were the epitome of privilege and comfort in Uganda, and then within days my parents and I were on a plane to Montreal as refugees. The ensuing years were tumultuous. I remember living in attics, visiting the Salvation Army for clothes, and drinking the mini half and half singles for breakfast. We eventually settled in a small northern city, and my parents re-invented themselves several times over. During the summers, my parents would pack us up and we would drive across  Canada and the US – always stopping to visit the most extreme theme parks. My dad loved to take us on all the craziest roller coasters. Something my father said has resonated often during these past few months … “just enjoy the ride.”

The past few months have certainly felt like a rollercoaster to me: overwhelmed health care systems, cities and nations on lock-down, collapsing stock markets, unprecedented capriciousness and pandemonium from our political leaders. VUCA. First coined in 1987 by the US Army War College¹ to describe the post-Cold-War world, and based on the leadership theories of Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus,² this acronym is applicable now more than ever.^3,4 

Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous.

Volatility: the accelerating rate of change, uncertainty: the lack of predictability, complexity: the interconnectedness, of cause-and-effect forces, and ambiguity: the strong potential for misreads. These four terms are interrelated; it is harder to predict a health outcome, the more volatile, uncertain, vague and complex the event. Case in point: SARS CoV-2.

“I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

– Oliver Wendell Holmes

The antidote to this is…

…VUCA: Vision, Understanding, Clarity, and Agility. This week’s PROspective article by Jake Wood, CEO and Co-founder of Team Rubicon, illustrates the two faces of VUCA, specific to the COVID-19 pandemic.

For public health professionals, consider this an opportunity to cultivate a growth mindset which will be translatable across multiple scenarios and situations in your professional and personal life. Take some time to hone (or develop) your personal guideposts which will provide the vision and strategy to ground you when the next VUCA situation takes place.⁵ You would fare exceptionally well by starting with the core tenets of our Epidemiology department: integrity, rigor, ambition, and collegiality. Cultivate how to be responsive and not reactive to the next crisis that you will inevitably be faced with.

“Hope is not a strategy”

– Jake Wood

How will you identify and reduce the impact of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity when faced with challenges?

Here are some suggestions from an article in NEJM Catalyst, on “Responding to Covid-19: Lessons from Management Research”:

1) Put people first

2) Manage operations creatively

3) Attend to teamwork and communication

4) Create outside partnerships

5) Embrace clear and humble leadership

As an aside, these have all been very much in practice at RSPH during the past few months.

So, are you enjoying this ride? You don’t have any choice but to be right where you are, in the middle of a pandemic so you might as well just surrender to the ride. The lows will amplify the highs and the turns will be confusing, but they will all provide opportunities to learn and grow.

References:

1. U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center (February 16, 2018). “Who first originated the term VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity)?”. USAHEC Ask Us a Question. The United States Army War College. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
2. Bennis, Warren; Nanus, Burt (1985). Leaders: Strategies for Taking Charge.
3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmichels/2020/05/10/for-leaders-the-lessons-of-covid-19-go-beyond-crisis-management/#23050c927e9b
4. https://chiefexecutive.net/understanding-vuca-environment/
5. https://www.ckju.net/en/blog/strategic-management-how-and-why-redefine-organizational-strategy-todays-vuca-world/58699